Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Miami, FL

101 
WWUS52 KMFL 111904
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
304 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

FLC011-111930-
/O.CON.KMFL.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-081011T1930Z/
BROWARD FL-
302 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...

AT 301 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR INTERSECTION PINES BLVD AND I-75...OR NEAR SOUTHWEST 
RANCHES...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 8 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWEST RANCHES AND WESTERN 
SECTIONS OF PEMBROKE PINES AND MIRAMAR THROUGH 330 PM.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS
IMMEDIATELY! LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES NUMBER ONE KILLERS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE
STRUCK BY LIGHTNING.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR DAMAGE TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
OR YOUR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIAMI. OR YOU CAN
ALSO CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI DIRECTLY AT
305.229.4528 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER.

LAT...LON 2597 8029 2597 8030 2596 8030 2596 8048
      2612 8036 2604 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 027DEG 7KT 2602 8038

$$

MOLLEDA

850 
WWUS52 KMFL 111916
SVSMFL

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

FLC011-111926-
/O.CAN.KMFL.SV.W.0131.000000T0000Z-081011T1930Z/
BROWARD FL-
316 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT THE THUNDERSTORM HAS 
DISSIPATED. THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 2597 8029 2597 8030 2596 8030 2596 8048
      2612 8036 2604 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 027DEG 7KT 2600 8039

$$

DG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1009 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

.UPDATE...JUST DID A QUICK UPDATE TO ADD DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL
NOON FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. SOME FOG HAD DEVELOPED EARLIER
NORTH OF THE REGION AND WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW, THIS
HAS ADVECTED INTO GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES WITH THE SHERIFFS
OFFICE IN GLADES REPORTING VERY LOW VISIBILITIES. FOR NOW, HAVE
NOT MADE ANY OTHER CHANGES TO MORNING UPDATES BUT REAL CONCERN IS
JUST HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MFL
SOUNDING SHOWS A LITTLE DRIER VERSUS 12 TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH MOST
OF THIS DRYING TAKING PLACE IN THE LOWER LAYERS WITH PWAT NEARLY
DOWN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. THIS JUST MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT BUT STILL PLENTY OF SUN SOUTH OF THE FOG
LAYER MENTIONED ABOVE. SO THIS COULD OFFSET THE AMOUNT OF DRYING
AND WITH THE MID LEVEL LOW STILL IN THE VICINITY, DID NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO LOWER THE SCT POPS JUST YET. MARINE ZONES LOOK
TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

30/KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 910 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008/

AVIATION...
THERE ARE NO IMMEDIATE WEATHER-RELATED AVIATION CONCERNS...WITH
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOST AVAILABLE SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A BROAD
AREA OF MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENT AIR TO THE SOUTH OF UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST OF S.C. WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION ONLY VCSH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...AS SEA
BREEZE SHOULD MOVE INLAND SOONER THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR
TSRA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AT KAPF. EXPECT PREVAILING SURFACE
WINDS FROM THE ESE AT 5-10 KNOTS...WITH GULF COAST SEA BREEZE
RESULTING IN SW FLOW AT KAPF AFTER 11/16Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008/

DISCUSSION...LOW EAST OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA IS SEEN WELL ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NAM12 INITIALIZES IT WELL BUT THE GFS40 HAS
IT A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH. ANYWAY, BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW STARING
TO MOVE SOUTHWEST LATER TODAY AND WILL WEAKEN IT IN THE NORTHEAST
GULF OF MEXICO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTH OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THIS WEEKEND IS THE REASON THE LOW GETS PUSHED
SOUTHWEST. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEAK AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES NORTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH WILL INCREASE THE
WINDS SUNDAY AND WILL BE UP THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. SO THE RIP
CURRENT RISK WILL BE ELEVATED FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. DRY AIR ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL WORK SOUTHWEST INTO FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FROM 2 INCHES MONDAY TO NEAR 1 INCH BY TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
PRECIPITATION FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES STAYING BETWEEN 1 AND 1 AND A THIRD INCHES.

FOR TODAY, HAVE DECIDED TO PLACE THE HIGHEST POPS ON THE WEST SIDE
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE NAM12 AND THE LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS THE
MOST PRECIP THERE TODAY. MOST LIKELY LIFT FROM THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND THE TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LOW UP
NORTH. BY SUNDAY, THE MOVEMENT TO THE WEST INCREASES BUT WITH HIGH
PWATS BETWEEN 1.8 AND 2 INCHES, WENT WITH THE MOS GUIDANCE
NUMBERS OF NEAR 40 PERCENT MOST AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY AND
THEN STARTED THE DECREASE IN POPS ON TUESDAY. AS STATED ABOVE, NO
PRECIP ON TAP FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND WITH MINIMAL POPS.

MARINE...FOR THE ATLANTIC, EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 7
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM BY MONDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FEET ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST AGAINST THE GULF
STREAM. AS FOR THE GULF SIDE, NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL RESPOND AND
BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
WILL STAY ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  76  86  78 / 30 30 40 40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  87  79 / 30 30 40 40
MIAMI            89  77  87  78 / 30 30 40 40
NAPLES           88  75  89  74 / 30 20 40 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR FLZ063-FLZ066.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1026 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-120530-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1026 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY GLADES/HENDRY COUNTIES THROUGH NOON EDT...
...MODERATE RISK OF LIGHTNING FOR THIS AFTERNOON...
...MODERATE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS TODAY FOR ATLANTIC WATERS...
...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 MPH AND
LOW TIDE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MORE CONCENTRATED IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS TODAY.

WATERSPOUTS: THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND PROFILE AND
THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THESE
WATERS.

WIND: DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR, LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

HAIL: DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR, THE
FORMATION OF SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

FLOODING: THE COMBINATION OF A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND PROFILE AND
CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ISOLATED AREAS WILL RESULT IN A
SLIGHT RISK OF URBAN TYPE FLOODING TODAY IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

VISIBILITY: AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO ONE QUARTER OF A MILE OR LESS ACROSS
GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES THROUGH NOON EDT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY,
WITH DRIER AIR ENTERING THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

70/DD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
207 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

FLZ071-072-168-172-111830-
COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY FL-INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-
METRO BROWARD COUNTY FL-COASTAL BROWARD COUNTY FL-
207 PM EDT SAT OCT 11 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS EASTERN BROWARD COUNTY...

AT 207 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN BROWARD
COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORM WAS NEAR PINES BLVD AND UNIVERSITY
DRIVE. ALL ACTIVITY WAS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

FORT LAUDERDALE...
HOLLYWOOD...
PEMBROKE PINES...
COOPER CITY...
MIRAMAR...
DAVIE...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

LAT...LON 2610 8011 2609 8011 2599 8013 2596 8048
      2633 8046 2633 8008
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 030DEG 8KT 2600 8026

70/DD