Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Miami, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
311 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN PROGRESS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...AS
A BROAD WARM ADVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA IN DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN REMNANTS OF FAY LOCATED OVER THE MID-
SOUTH...AND DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE FROM THE 12Z KMFL RAOB WAS 2.23
INCHES... WHICH IS ROUGHLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE AUGUST...AND THIS RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK...COURTESY OF
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING A VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...WITH A WEAK VORT MAX CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS EXPECTED TO MEANDER NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF ENHANCED CONVECTION.

OVERALL...EXPECT CONDITIONS SIMILAR TO MONDAY TO PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY...WITH GRADIENT BETWEEN REMNANTS OF FAY AND RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE EAST REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT
MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW...AND AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTHEAST COAST.
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY WITH
THE ONSET OF DIURNAL HEATING LATE TOMORROW MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED IN THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF FAY WILL LIKELY PHASE WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...ALLOWING MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER FLORIDA. THIS WILL BOTH DIMINISH THE
MAGNITUDE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AND RESULT IN A GRADUAL
DECREASING TREND IN PWAT...AND WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE FORECAST
WITH LOWER POPS DURING THIS PERIOD FOR ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE
WEST COAST...WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 70S AT NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S DURING THE
DAY...AND WILL FOLLOW A BLEND OF FWC/MAV/MET GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
BOARD.

AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED
PORTION OF THE FORECAST...ALTHOUGH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM
THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PRESENCE OF AT
LEAST WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...
AND A CONTINUATION OF HIGHEST DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE MAINLAND. OVER LABOR DAY WEEKEND...MODELS
INDICATE THAT A WEAKNESS MAY DEVELOP IN THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING
MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST FOR AFTERNOON STORMS...BUT WOULD
ALSO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND EAST COAST. MUCH OF THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL
ALSO HINGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM
GUSTAV...CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FROM NHC BRINGS THIS SYSTEM
NORTHWESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA EARLY THIS WEEKEND...
AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE VERY CLOSELY MONITORED BY EVERYONE IN
SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE ARE NO MARINE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST FLOW RANGING FROM 10-15 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS/BISCAYNE BAY/LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO 5-10 KNOTS OVER
THE LOCAL GULF WATERS. THIS FLOW WILL RESULT IN SEAS ON THE ORDER
OF 1-3 FEET. FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS
TO INCREASE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS...WITH SEAS
SLOWLY RISING TO 4-5 FEET BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE ARE NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PREVENT
CRITICAL MINIMUM RH VALUES FROM BEING ACHIEVED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  78  90 / 40 50 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  91 / 50 60 30 30
MIAMI            77  90  79  91 / 50 60 30 30
NAPLES           77  91  77  92 / 20 60 30 40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-252355-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
145 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...
...STANDING WATERS IN PARTS OF GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ACROSS
THE INTERIOR OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY
WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FLOODING: PLENTY OF STANDING WATER REMAINS IN GLADES AND HENDRY
COUNTIES. THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS IN THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO SOME NEW FLOODING CONDITIONS OR SLOW THE
ABILITY OF ANY WATER TO RECEDE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE OVER THE GULF COAST AREAS MAY ALSO LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING
OF ROADWAYS DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND ALREADY
SATURATED GROUND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON WITH
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

FLZ070-071-252045-
INLAND COLLIER COUNTY FL-INLAND BROWARD COUNTY FL-
343 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS ALLIGATOR ALLEY...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MILE MARKER 30 ON
ALLIGATOR ALLEY TO MILE MARKER 60 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...MOVING NORTH
AT 9 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT...

MILE MARKER 30 ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
INTERSECTION ALLIGATOR ALLEY AND MIAMI CANAL...
COLLIER/BROWARD LINE AND ALLIGATOR ALLEY...
COLLIER COUNTY REST AREA ON ALLIGATOR ALLEY...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT
FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2602 8115 2625 8121 2626 8088 2629 8088
      2630 8050 2605 8045
TIME...MOT...LOC 1943Z 167DEG 8KT 2613 8052 2612 8107

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
517 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

FLZ063-252200-
GLADES FL-
517 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING ACROSS GLADES  COUNTY...

AT 515 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PALMDALE...MOVING NORTH AT AROUND 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL AFFECT...

PALMDALE...
LAKEPORT...

AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...OR A COMBINATION OF THESE ARE POSSIBLE.
LIGHTNING IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER IN FLORIDA. TREES
AND OPEN SHELTERS OFFER NO PROTECTION. WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50 MPH CAN
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES...AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

RESIDENTS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT FOR
ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAT...LON 2708 8103 2682 8117 2682 8136 2704 8140
      2704 8133 2703 8132 2703 8129 2704 8128
      2709 8127 2709 8126
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 190DEG 14KT 2691 8126

BAXTER