Red Flag Warning 45, NWS Miami, FL

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 201925
RFWMFL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

FLZ067-068-071>075-168-172-173-202030-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FW.W.0045.000000T0000Z-081121T0000Z/
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-
INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-
COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-
225 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS REBOUNDED SLIGHTLY ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
FLORIDA AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL ONLY DROP BETWEEN 35 AND 40
PERCENT ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR ZONES. THEREFORE,
THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR PALM BEACH, BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

&&

$$

FLZ063-066-070-210000-
/O.CON.KMFL.FW.W.0045.000000T0000Z-081121T0000Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER-
225 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING.

DRY AIR HAS MOVED DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF FLORIDA UNDER
NORTHERLY FLOW. THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT IS ALSO DRY WHICH HAS ALLOWED
FOR SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP A BIT MORE THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS GLADES,
HENDRY AND NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTIES TO DROP BELOW 35 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN AT CRITICAL THRESHOLDS UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING WHEN TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. THEREFORE...
THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR ZONES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE
FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 202324
RFWMFL

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
624 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

FLZ063-066-070-210030-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FW.W.0045.000000T0000Z-081121T0000Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND COLLIER-
624 PM EST THU NOV 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CONTINUE TO RISE WELL ABOVE 35% THIS EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 AM EST THU NOV 20 2008

..DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN TODAY INTO FRIDAY WHILE
MOVING SOUTH INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE
CWA IN A NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER. A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHEAST...AND PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR SATURDAY.

A STRENGTHEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN OVER THE CWA THIS WEEKEND, AND ALLOW
FOR BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS THIS WEEKEND. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WORKING INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON
SUNDAY...AS THE NORTHEAST WINDS DEEPEN TO 700 MB. SO WILL KEEP THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS GOING FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS ON
SUNDAY...WHILE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY.

.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR A SECOND
COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY
NIGHT. SO WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE CWA
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE GOING COOLER AND DRIER AGAIN FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN FROM THE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TODAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND. THE SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS
TODAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 20 KNOTS OR GREATER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREFORE...THE GULF STREAM SEAS TO SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND BE BELOW 7 FEET BY LATE THIS MORNING. THE
ATLANTIC SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY...BEFORE
INCREASING TO 6 TO 8 FEET NEAR-SHORE AND UP TO 11 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GULF SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW
6 FEET TODAY INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
INCREASE TO 6 FEET BY SATURDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE LATEST NAM12 AND WRF MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE DRIER AIR
OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL WORK DOWN INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE DEW POINTS OVER THE CWA TO FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER
40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE TEMPS SHOULD
ALSO BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE CWA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER
MOST OF THE CWA TO FALL BELOW 35 PERCENT 4 HOURS OR MORE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE ONLY AREAS THAT WILL NOT SEE THE 4 HOUR DURATION OF BELOW 35
PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY AND
THE SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...DUE TO THE WINDS BEING NORTHWEST
OVER WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY AND NORTHEAST OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY. THESE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WATERS WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP THE DEW POINTS UP A
LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN OVER REST OF THE CWA.

SO WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE CWA LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR WESTERN COLLIER COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  49  74  57 / -  -  -  -
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  54  76  59 / -  -  -  -
MIAMI            74  54  76  59 / -  -  -  -
NAPLES           71  52  74  53 / -  -  -  -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ070-FLZ071-
     FLZ072-FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075-FLZ168-FLZ172-FLZ173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-
     AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
835 PM EST WED NOV 19 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-201645-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
835 PM EST WED NOV 19 2008

...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS IN THE GULF STREAM CONTINUING OVERNIGHT...
...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST...
...COOL TEMPERATURES INTERIOR PENINSULA OVERNIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: A NORTH TO NORTHEAST SWELL OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL
AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

TEMPERATURES: A COOL NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE INTERIOR PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA ONCE AGAIN, AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 35 TO 45
DEGREE RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF GLADES COUNTY.

WAVES: SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 7 TO 9 FOOT RANGE IN THE GULF
STREAM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY, WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ON THE LOCAL WATERS ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND, WITH AN INCREASING
THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LIKELY SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTH ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

70/DD