Red Flag Warning 38, NWS Miami, FL

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 291817
RFWMFL

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
217 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING CANCELLED...


FLZ063-066-069-070-291930-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FW.W.0038.000000T0000Z-081029T2200Z/
GLADES-HENDRY-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
217 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG
WARNING. 

DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S
AND DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE UPPER 40S ACROSS GLADES, HENDRY
AND COLLIER COUNTIES...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA
WILL NOT GO BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS. THEREFORE...THE
RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
341 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...

...NEAR RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WEST INTERIOR...

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WINDS HAVE GONE CALM ALMOST EVERYWHERE AND THIS HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO AROUND 40 ACROSS PATCHY PARTS OF THE NW
INTERIOR AREAS...TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG BOTH COASTS AS OF 3AM. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP ANOTHER FEW DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE AS LIGHT
NW BREEZE CONTINUES UNDER GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF STATES EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS
THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A N-NNW FLOW
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH ANOTHER SUNNY ANS UNSEASONABLY COOL
DAY IN STORE AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO AROUND THE 70 DEGREE MARK...BUT
WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS IT WILL AT LEAST FEEL WARMER. MODELS CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SFC WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...I HAD MY DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
THIS WOULD HAPPEN BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE
SFC IS ALREADY SHIFTING...AND COLD AIR STRATOCU OVER THE ATLANTIC
HAS BEEN MAKING PROGRESS TOWARDS THE COAST ALL NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING
SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FL TODAY
SO IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS DRY A DAY AS YESTERDAY.
REGARDLESS...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A COOL LAND MASS TO START A LAND
BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS LEANING
TOWARDS THE COOL (FWC) GUIDANCE. THESE VALUES COULD ONCE AGAIN
APPROACH SOME RECORD LOWS IN GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. NE FLOW
SHOULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOMETIME ONCE THE LAND BREEZE IS
BROKEN...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED A LITTLE FROM MODEL
FORECASTS. EVEN STILL...WITH THICKNESSES RISING AND NE FLOW KICKING
IN ABOVE THE SFC IT SHOULD BE A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...AND A WARMER NIGHT ACROSS THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND SOME MORE CLOUDS.

BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE
MOVING SE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY MAY CUT OFF OVER THE NE GULF
OF MEXICO AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE WESTERLIES. THIS WILL
INDUCE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD LOW OR SFC TROUGH OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE RESULTANT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
FEATURE AND THE SFC HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...COMBINED WITH
SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...WILL LIKELY
COMBINE TO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
ATLANTIC ALONG WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS TO ALL OF SOUTH FL. A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AS PWATS CLIMB
TOWARDS 1.3 INCHES AND MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL ENOUGH TO BREAK ANY
REMAINING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THIS
PERIOD...BUT SEVERAL MORE NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ARE LIKELY
ACROSS WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS AS THEY DECOUPLE...BUT WARMER
NIGHTTIME LOWS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND MORE CLOUDS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE WARMEST ALONG THE GULF
COAST/NAPLES AREAS DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW NEAR 20 KNOTS ACROSS SOUTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS SHOULD DROP OFF SOME THE
NEXT FEW HOURS...AND MORE SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE DAY TODAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION. WILL EXTEND THE
SCA INTO MID AFTERNOON AS A RESULT AS SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO COME
DOWN. SEAS SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT NE AND WEAKEN...BUT STRONGER NE WINDS WILL RETURN LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND THIS WILL PUSH SEAS BACK TO 7 FEET ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY INSISTENT THAT DEWPOINTS WILL STEADILY
INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENOUGH SO
THAT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET. THIS IS DIFFICULT TO
SWALLOW HOWEVER GIVEN THAT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 900MB
DEWPOINTS BELOW 40F OUT THERE AND SOME OF THIS DRY AIR SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S...WILL
GO AHEAD AND UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WESTERN AREAS
TODAY. FOR INTERIOR PALM BEACH/BROWARD COUNTIES IT APPEARS 1 TO 3
HOURS OF RHS AROUND 35 PERCENT MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT INCREASING
MOISTURE COULD LIMIT RED FLAG DURATION CRITERIA AND WILL NOT
UPGRADE TO A WARNING HERE.

&&

.CLIMATE...

THE FOLLOWING RECORDS MAY BE APPROACHED ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR TONIGHT:

SITE                 RECORD/YEAR

CANAL POINT           47/1968
CLEWISTON             53/2001
DEVILS GARDEN         48/1968
EVERGLADES CITY       53/1968
IMMOKALEE             50/1973
LA BELLE              44/1968
NAPLES                51/1973

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  53  76  67 / 0 0 -  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  57  77  69 / 0 0 -  10
MIAMI            74  56  78  67 / 0 0 -  10
NAPLES           71  52  77  60 / 0 0 -  -

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ069-FLZ070.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ650-
     AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...STRASSBERG
FIRE WX...STRASSBERG/JR
AVIATION...JR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1045 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-291100-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1045 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2008

...ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT...
...NEAR RECORD LOWS MOST AREAS TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

TEMPERATURES: TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FROM
THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST TO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 EAST COAST OVERNIGHT.
PATCHES OF FROST COULD FORM IN WIND PROTECTED AREAS IN THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR.

WAVES: NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL PRODUCE GULF STREAM SEAS
TO 11 FEET TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL REDEVELOP AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.

DUE TO WINDS, GULF STREAM SEAS WILL BE 8 TO 10 FEET WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 7 FEET THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
GLADES, HENDRY AND NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.