Red Flag Warning 34, NWS Miami, FL

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 202207
RFWMFL

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
607 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT WITH
WINDS OF 15 MPH OR MORE HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM...

FLZ068-072-168-172-202315-
/O.EXP.KMFL.FW.W.0034.000000T0000Z-080520T2200Z/
METRO PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
607 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE CLIMBED TO AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT OVER
THE PREVIOUSLY WARNED AREA...THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN ALLOWD TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
241 PM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK TROUGH REMAINS STALLED OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE WHILE A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WHILE THESE SURFACE FEATURES REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THURS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN 1/3 OF THE
COUNTRY WILL OCCASIONAL SEND SMALL AND WEAK M/U SHORT WAVES ACROSS
THE GULF AND FL. ALL OF THESE ELEMENTS COMBINED WITH STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO WHILE THIS SET UP REMAINS IN PLACE... NEAR
RECORD OR RECORD HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST
METROS WED AND THURS ALONG WITH VERY WARM NIGHTS ALONG THE WEST
COAST WITH NEAR NORMAL DAYS. THE ONLY CAVEAT INTO NOT REACHING RECORD
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN AT THE EAST COAST SITES WILL BE AT WHAT TIME AND
HOW FAR INLAND THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. IF THE BOUNDARY STAYS
ALONG THE COAST AND EAST OF THE SITES, MID 90S WILL OCCUR, BUT IF
THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE CITY, ESPECIALLY IF RAINFALL
OCCURS, TEMPS AROUND 89 TO 90 WOULD BE MORE COMMON.

WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON INTO THE END
OF THE WEEK, WIDESPREAD AND SOAKING RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED,
THEREFORE PATCHY SMOKE MAY STILL OCCUR DOWN WIND OF THE FIRES
ALONG THE W AND SW SHORES OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND ALSO DOWN WIND OF
THE MUSTANG CORNER FIRE IN THE EVERGLADES AS LONG AS NO LARGE
AREA OF PRECIP OCCURS OVER THE BURN SITES.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND, THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY SHIFT AS A
LARGE RIDGE PUSHES NORTH INTO THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AND AS
THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SOUTH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS MAY POSSIBLY ALLOW A LATE SEASON
COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH S FL THIS WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION SATURDAY WHILE DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DECREASING
RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN AND SHIFTING THE SURFACE FLOW TO NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY..

&&

.AVIATION...SW FLOW EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
ALLOW SOME SMOKE TO DRIFT ACROSS THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE
TERMINALS WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON VISIBILITY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS MOIST AIR
RISES DUE TO HEATING. NO RAIN EXPECTED NEAR KAPF FOR TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...OUTSIDE OF SHRA AND TS ACTIVITY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
FAIRLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE WEAK TROUGH REMAINS
WELL NORTH AND THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS WELL SOUTH. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP WINDS AT 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS AT 4 FEET OR LESS
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WEEKEND BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SCENARIO WOULD INCREASE SEAS
IN THE GULF STEAM TO AROUND 7 FEET OR POSSIBLY MORE LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ACROSS S FL INTO THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA OUT OF RFW CRITERIA... HOWEVER... WITH SUCH STRONG
HEATING ACROSS S FL DURING THE AFTERNOON... THE SW FLOW MAY KEEP
THE SEA BREEZE FROM PUSHING INLAND ALONG THE EAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID 90S MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH GOOD MIXING WHICH MAY ALLOW
RHS TO DROP TO NEAR 35% ALONG WITH WINDS OF NEAR 15 KTS FOR MAYBE
AN HOUR. THIS WOULD LIKELY OCCUR ONLY AT ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS
THE EAST COAST METROS WED AND THURS AFTERNOONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  74  91 / 20 30 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  93  75  90 / 20 30 -  30
MIAMI            76  93  75  91 / 20 20 -  30
NAPLES           77  87  76  87 / 10 20 10 30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...TINGLER
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ERA/DD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1119 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-210330-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1119 AM EDT TUE MAY 20 2008

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...
...SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS GULF COAST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WILL
PERSIST ALONG THE GULF COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACHES OF COLLIER COUNTY.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS ONCE
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOME SMOKE FROM THE EVERGLADES FIRE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD METRO AREAS POSSIBLY INTO THURSDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, BUT IT APPEARS ANY SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY WILL BE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT MAY ALSO PRODUCE A DANGEROUS SMOKE AND FOG
COMBINATION AROUND THE LAKE REGION EACH NIGHT. SOME HAZY
CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN ALL
OF THESE AREAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS, ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

70/DD