Red Flag Warning 14, NWS Miami, FL

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 131534
RFWMFL

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1134 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2008

...A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR INLAND COLLIER...
MAINLAND MONROE...INLAND AND METROPOLITAN BROWARD...AND INLAND...
SOUTHERN AND METROPOLITAN MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES FROM 1 PM UNTIL 7 PM
EDT TODAY FOR 4 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
BELOW 35 PERCENT.

FLZ070>075-174-132300-
/O.CON.KMFL.FW.W.0014.080313T1700Z-080313T2300Z/
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1134 AM EDT THU MAR 13 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

A DRY AIR MASS WILL PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY...AND STRONG VERTICAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BRING EVEN DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE SURFACE...THUS LOWERING THE DEW
POINTS. FOUR OR MORE CONSECUTIVE HOURS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS
THAN 35 PERCENT CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WARNING AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE
EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

70/DD

000 
WWUS82 KMFL 131800
RFWMFL

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAS
BEEN CANCELED...

FLZ070>075-174-131900-
/O.CAN.KMFL.FW.W.0014.000000T0000Z-080313T2300Z/
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
200 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS CANCELED THE RED FLAG
WARNING.

AIR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WARNING AREA HAVE STRUGGLED TO RISE
INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE LOWER 50S. ALTHOUGH AIR TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A
FEW MORE DEGREES OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL INTO THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE...
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE WARNING AREA WILL NOT
WARM SUFFICIENTLY FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA TO BE MET. THUS...THE RED
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED.

$$

70/DD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
952 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2008

.UPDATE...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AROUND THE SE FL COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE WITH A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT OF UP TO 15 TO 20 DEGREES BETWEEN AREAS WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. ANYTIME WE
HAVE A FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARLY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR FOG COMES TO MIND. HOWEVER...00Z SNDG AND ACARS DATA
REVEALS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYER ARE MODERATE AT LEAST
AND THE ANALYSIS SHOWS DEW POINTS DEPRESSIONS IN THE ORDER OF 15 TO
20 DEGREES ALONG THE SE COAST. ACROSS THE NW INTERIOR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LESS THAN
10 DEGREES AND THE WIND LIGHTER. GIVEN THESE OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS THE CHANCE OF FOG IS PRETTY SMALL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...IT
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT IN THE NW INTERIOR. WITH THAT
SAID...ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE GRIDS IN THAT AREA. IF ANYTHING MANAGES
TO DEVELOP...I DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE DENSE. THESE OBSERVED
FEATURES AND THE REDUCED CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT ARE THE RESULT OF
A DRIER AIR MASS WORKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AS EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR LOOP ALSO. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCE
MINIMAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF STREAM...HIGHER DEW POINTS THERE...AND
THE APPROACHING UPR LVL S/W FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALBEIT
WEAK...DECIDED TO LEAVE MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSRA FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR TOMORROW...CURRENT FCST TREND CONTINUES TO INDICATE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REACHING
CLOSE TO MARGINAL LEVELS FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS. GIVEN THAT...HAVE
DECIDED TO RAISE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAINLY FOR INLAND PORTIONS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT
ANALYZE NEW GUIDANCE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE DECIDING ON A WARNING AS
THE SITUATION LOOKS BORDERLINE AT THE PRESENT TIME.

NO OTHER UPDATES/AMENDMENTS PLANNED WITH THE FORECAST.

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 229 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2008/

DISCUSSION...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
JUST SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL BECOME DIFFUSE TONIGHT AS THE
SHORTWAVE INDUCES WEAK SURFACE LOW TO FORM JUST NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LIGHT SEA
BREEZE MAY BE STARTING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SEA BREEZE APPEAR LOW. LIGHT WNW/NW FLOW WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES. NAM/GFS DISAGREE WITH HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK SOUTH OF THE LAKE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM
BRINGING MORE SIGNIFICANT DROPS IN DEWPOINTS. THIS SEEMS OVERDONE
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS...MUCH AS THE NAM HAS HAD TROUBLE WITH THIS
WINTER SEASON. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY
AND WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP ON BOTH
COASTS. VERY DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND AT MID LEVELS WILL
MEAN A DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE.

DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE BELOW 800MB WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED EAST OF THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS A SHEARING SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AS A RESULT WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SSE FRIDAY AND THEN
SW ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO WARMER DAYS THESE
PERIODS...ESPECIALLY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING OVER 10
KTS...700-500MB RIDGE NEARLY OVERHEAD AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY MAY APPROACH RECORD LEVELS IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE
STRONG SW FLOW.

FOR SUNDAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES...WHICH MAY PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. MOST AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH THIS
SCENARIO. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT WITH MID
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINING OVERHEAD INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK OVERALL.
UPPER FLOW MAY BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS
SHOWS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES...WITH
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING
MOVING OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW...BUT MAINLY DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE.

AVIATION...
EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH ATLANTIC AND GULF COAST
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HOWEVER...WESTERLY FLOW
OFF THE GULF HAS ALLOWED A SCT/BKN DECK OF MVFR STRATUS TO PERSIST
AT KAPF...AND WILL MAINTAIN A TWO HOUR TEMPO GROUP FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE...FEW/SCT CU IN THE 3-6 KFT LAYER AND SCT HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WHEN
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING A GRADUAL
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW.  ALTHOUGH A SEA BREEZE MAY STILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WILL FORECAST
PREVAILING WEST FLOW OF 10-15 KNOTS AT ALL SITES...WITH GRADUAL
VEERING TO THE NNW BY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AND
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS SW AT 15 TO 20 KTS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN SEAS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES SOME AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

FIRE WEATHER...
DRY AIR WILL WORK INTO THE UPPER PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OVERNIGHT FROM THE WEST AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL DROP THROUGH
TONIGHT BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH. NAM APPEARS WAY OVERDONE WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS TOMORROW...AS MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 900MB DEWPOINTS
AROUND 30F WITH MOISTURE LEVELS REMAINING HIGH IN THE LOWEST
2000FT. THEREFORE...WILL BRING RHS DOWN BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR 3 TO
4 HRS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS AND INLAND PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES...BUT THINK MOISTURE BELOW 2000FT MAKES THIS A
BORDERLINE CASE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS MOMENT. WILL NOT
ISSUE A WARNING BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT HEADLINE LOW RHS IN THE
FIRE WX FORECAST. LATER SHIFTS WILL MONITOR LATEST DATA AND IF A
LITTLE MORE DRY AIR BECOMES APPARENT, THEN A WARNING MIGHT BE
NEEDED. ONE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY ESCAPE RED FLAG CONDITIONS
REGARDLESS IS COASTAL COLLIER COUNTY, WHERE LACK OF OFFSHORE FLOW
IN THE MORNING TO ADVECT DRY AIR IN FROM THE INTERIOR PLUS AN
EARLY DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP RHS UP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  79  59  81 / 10 -  10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  78  61  80 / 10 -  10 10
MIAMI            63  79  61  82 / 10 -  10 10
NAPLES           61  76  59  79 / 10 -  10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ073-
     FLZ075.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...52/PS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
711 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-131115-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
709 PM EDT WED MAR 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.