Wind Advisory 17, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WWUS74 KMEG 011622
NPWMEG

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TODAY...

.AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL HELP TO
PRODUCE STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL TODAY.

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-020000-
/O.CON.KMEG.WI.Y.0017.000000T0000Z-080502T0000Z/
RANDOLPH-CLAY-LAWRENCE-GREENE-CRAIGHEAD-POINSETT-MISSISSIPPI-
CROSS-CRITTENDEN-ST. FRANCIS-LEE AR-PHILLIPS-DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WALNUT RIDGE...PARAGOULD...JONESBORO...
HARRISBURG...BLYTHEVILLE...WYNNE...WEST MEMPHIS...FORREST CITY...
HELENA...KENNETT...CARUTHERSVILLE
1122 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING...

SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL.

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 TO 39 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 40 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE
VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
301 AM CDT THU MAY 1 2008

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT CIRRUS
CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ATTM. STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER
TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND IS QUICKLY SPREADING
NORTHWARD. WINDS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY STRONG FROM THE SOUTH AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS WILL HELP SPREAD THE STRATUS INTO WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY 12Z. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP BY NOON
TIME. CU DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL GO
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR WESTERN
SECTIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY EAST. WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING AND EXPECT SOME STATIONS COULD EASILY REACH 25 MPH SUSTAINED
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WILL LIKELY ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THIS WILL
OCCUR AND LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE IF NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED EASTWARD.
ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...CU WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING WHILE STRATUS REFORMS
OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE STATUS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE
CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. ENTIRE CWA WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY/CLOUDY BY
SUNRISE. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL DIE SOME BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP LOWS FROM DROPPING VERY
MUCH. READINGS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES MAKING IT
FEEL LIKE A SUMMERTIME NIGHT.

FRIDAY...STRATUS MAY TAKE LONGER TO BREAK UP. EXPECT THERE COULD BE
SOME EARLY MORNING WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS AS WELL. ONCE STRATUS
BREAKS UP...EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING. WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY AROUND SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS MAY BE A TAD COOLER DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER BUT STILL EXPECT READINGS NEAR 80 DEGREES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE CWA. BIG
QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO TIMING. MODELS HAVE QUITE A BIG
DIFFERENCE IN REGARDS TO THIS. GFS IS PUTTING COLD FRONT PASSAGE
NEAR MISSISSIPPI RIVER 00-03Z RANGE. NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AT
AROUND 06Z WHILE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT BRING FRONT UNTIL 12Z SATURDAY.
ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION. THE OTHER
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN TRENDING SLOWER. THE TIMING WILL ALSO PLAY A
ROLE WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE SLOWER...THE
LEAST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR AS SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY
WILL DISAPPEAR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...STILL THINK
THERE IS A THREAT FOR WESTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS SOME
STORMS COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED SQUALL LINE. IN
ADDITION...THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERE AS IT PUSHES INTO
THE CWA BUT MAY BE DYING AS IT PUSHES EAST. AS FAR AS TIMING WILL
LEAN TOWARD NAM FOR NOW SINCE ITS IN BETWEEN BUT WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
THE NEW ECMWF BEFORE ZONE ISSUANCE TIME.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS
THUS WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING MORNING
HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH SOME STRATO-CU
FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY SKIRT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA THUS MAY
KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR THIS AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH END OF FORECAST PACKAGE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE CWA AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
THE MIDSOUTH SITTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW AND ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
HIGH THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S. LINGERING STRATO-CU
CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES EVEN LOWER ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS ON SUNDAY. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...HIGH SHIFTS EAST AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER CWA.
THIS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE CWA. EXPECT HIGHS
BACK UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  81  70  80  62 /  10  20  50  70
MKL  81  67  80  65 /  10  20  40  70
JBR  79  68  77  58 /  10  20  70  80
TUP  83  65  81  65 /   0  20  30  80

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
336 AM CDT WED APR 30 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-011200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
336 AM CDT WED APR 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SPEEDS OF AROUND 25 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD AND ALONG OF THE FRONT. WARM...MOIST AIR AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY MAY HELP SOME STORMS BECOME SEVERE. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT DEVELOP. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

KRM