Wind Advisory 14, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
942 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST AREA IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND A DEEPENING LOW
OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THE TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN
ARKANSAS BY THIS AFTERNOON.

HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND TWEAKED SOME DEWPOINT GRIDS. ALL OTHER PARAMETERS
LOOK GOOD.

HAVE COORDINATED WITH EM DIRECTORS IN LAWRENCE AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES CONCERNING THE FLOOD WATCH. WE HAVE AGREED TO CANCEL THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR THESE AREAS AS THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING
HAVE CEASED. HOWEVER...SLOWLY RECEDING FLOOD WATERS STILL POSE
PROBLEMS THUS WE HAVE REISSUED THE AREAL FLOOD WARNING ALONG THE
BLACK RIVER FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES.

A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING FOR
PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH
FLOOD. THE GRAHAM PUMPING STATION IN SOUTHERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IS
AWARE OF THE SITUATION AND READY TO ASSIST AT A MOMENTS NOTICE IF
NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST TODAY ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE MIDSOUTH.
AFTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE MID
60S FOR HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH TOWARD
THE MIDSOUTH. HOWEVER THE FRONT WILL NEVER QUITE MAKE IT INTO THE
CWA AS IT WILL STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE FRONT WILL THEN
LINGER OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI POSSIBLY AS LONG AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
DURING THIS TIME...THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF
THE CWA...EXPECT BULK OF ACTIVITY TO ALSO REMAIN NORTH. HOWEVER WILL
KEEP SMALL POPS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA DURING
THIS TIME.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON WHEN THE FRONT WILL START MOVING AGAIN.
MODELS SHOW A SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO
PUSH SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT. THE TIMING OF EXACTLY WHEN THAT WILL
HAPPEN CONTINUES TO BE A MYSTERY. THE NAM IS AS MUCH AS 24 HOURS
EARLIER WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA...DURING
THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. MEANWHILE...THE GFS DOESN/T
BRING THE FRONT THROUGH THE CWA UNTIL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. SINCE
CURRENT FORECAST REFLECTS MORE OF THE GFS TRENDS AT THIS TIME...WILL
LEAVE AS IS UNTIL SOME MODEL CONSISTENCY OCCURS. THUS WILL KEEP WARM
TEMPERATURES AND SMALL POPS IN FORECAST UNTIL FRIDAY. WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS OCCURING FRIDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND
FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD SAG SOUTH OF THE CWA ON SATURDAY BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUT THE CWA BACK
IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. CAN/T RULE OUT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE BACK INTO THE CWA FOR MONDAY. EXPECT
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.

ANY RAINFALL THAT FALLS DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND COULD AGGRAVATE THE ON-GOING FLOODING PROBLEMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...STAY TUNED TO LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  67  50  72  58 /   0   0  10  20
MKL  64  46  68  54 /   0   0  20  20
JBR  66  49  69  56 /   0  10  20  40
TUP  66  42  70  51 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PHILLIPS.

MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

AC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-261200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
432 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MANY RIVERS OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. SOME RIVERS HAVE HAVE CRESTED...BUT FLOODING WILL
STILL OCCUR IN AGRICULTURAL AREAS ADJACENT TO RIVERS. CONSULT THE
LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS AND RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY SEE RIVERS NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN ARKANSAS DELTA...WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF MEMPHIS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KRM