Snow Advisory 3, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2008

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
AT 09Z WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE DAY. THE BEST MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE APPEARS
AT THIS TIME TO REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW
TRACK...PRIMARILY WEST OF OUR CWA OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A DEFORMATION SNOW BAND HAS ALREADY BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THESE AREAS AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THIS HEAVIER SNOW BAND MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF RANDOLPH
AND LAWRENCE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THESE LOCATIONS
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THAT SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL EXCEED 4 INCHES OVER THESE AREAS...BUT THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING
MUCH OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. IN THESE
AREAS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NORTHWEST OF A WALNUT RIDGE
ARKANSAS TO KENNETT MISSOURI LINE. IN THESE AREAS...A SNOW
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY. SOUTH OF THE
SNOW ADVISORY AREA...SOME SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL BUT SHOULD NOT
ACCUMULATE. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
SCATTERED BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW PULLS NORTHEAST. ALL
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING WITH SKIES SLOWLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. A FEW SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A COLDER
AIRMASS FILTERING SOUTH INTO THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL ACROSS THE GULF COAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. AS
THIS OCCURS...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF NOW DEVELOP A SURFACE
WAVE ALONG THE FRONT THAT LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. BOTH MODELS DEVELOP
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OUR
AREA. WITH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER WITH A FAVORABLE LOW TRACK TO OUR
SOUTHEAST. SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OFF THERE STILL
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW. THEREFORE WILL
INCREASE POPS SOME AND INCLUDE RAIN OR SNOW FOR THIS TIME PERIOD
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY WITH DRY AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  40  33  57  37 /  60  10   0  10
MKL  39  28  55  34 /  70  10   0  10
JBR  35  28  51  33 / 100  10   0  10
TUP  42  31  59  37 /  30  10   0  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR DUNKLIN-
     PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...&&

JLH

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