Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WWUS54 KMEG 150617 RRA
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
117 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

TNC047-069-075-157-167-150645-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-080315T0645Z/
FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-HAYWOOD TN-HARDEMAN TN-TIPTON TN-
117 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON...NORTHERN HARDEMAN...SOUTHERN HAYWOOD...
NORTHEASTERN SHELBY AND FAYETTE COUNTIES...

AT 117 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. 
THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM MASON TO
BOLIVAR...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES SOUTHEAST OF 
COVINGTON TO BOLIVAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THESE STORMS HAD 
WEAKENED SLIGHTLY SINCE 1 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WHITEVILLE...DANCYVILLE...STANTON...TOONE...HILLVILLE AND CLOVERPORT.

LAT...LON 3549 8906 3544 8906 3544 8894 3536 8882
      3511 8915 3513 8927 3511 8953 3529 8982
      3566 8942
TIME...MOT...LOC 0617Z 226DEG 31KT 3547 8957 3526 8900

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1014 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...

RATHER COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO UNFOLDING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW POSITIONED
OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF NORTH TEXAS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS...SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO WEST-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI IN
RESPONSE TO SUFFICIENT SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...STRENGTHENING ATMOSPHERIC SHEAR...A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WITH MUCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG SOUTH AND ELEVATED JUST
NORTH OF THE FRONT...AND FORCING AT THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET. SHORT-TERM FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
THAT THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE
FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND EVOLVE
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE
EAST. THIS MAY ALLOW THE STRONGEST STORMS TO DEVELOP INTO FAR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WITH A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADO THREAT. THIS THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THESE AREAS FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FARTHER NORTH OF THE FRONT...THE AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED OFF TO
CONVECTION WITH NO SPECIFIC FORCING MECHANISM PRESENT. IT APPEARS
THAT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THESE AREAS WILL PROBABLY HOLD
OFF UNTIL MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A STRONG MID AND UPPER JET
STREAM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA AND PLACES MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE
LEFT FRONT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. THIS SHOULD HELP TO STRENGTHEN LARGE
SCALE ASCENT OVER THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
TO ADVECT COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER THE REGION...STEEPENING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES FURTHER TO IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM. ALSO...THE
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO NOSE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR REGION AND HELP TO TIGHTEN AN 850MB FRONTAL FEATURE STRETCHED
FROM NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO WEST TENNESSEE. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS ELEVATED FRONT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND INCREASING
SHEAR...EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP
WITH AN ATTENDANT LARGE HAIL THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST
OVER MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THROUGH SUNRISE AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.
WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT RISK OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND REFINE THE
HWO TO FOCUS ON TIMING AND THREAT TYPES.

UPDATED FORECAST AND GRIDS ALREADY SENT...AND UPDATED HWO OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008/

DISCUSSION...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM MIDDLE TENNESSEE SOUTHWEST
INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND EXTENDS WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. TEMPERATURES OVER THE FORECAST AREA RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S NEAR THE KENTUCKY BORDER TO THE MID 70S SOUTH
OF THE FRONT IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT WERE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED AWAY. SURFACE LOW OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL MOVE ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH
LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE RAIN SHOULD EXIT THE REGION
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL STORM BEGINS TO
DEVELOP SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND GRADUALLY MOVES EAST.
BY MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE TRAVELING ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO AND MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD SOME RAIN INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION...RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE WITH THE RAIN THREAT CONTINUING FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY AND SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE WEATHER FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION AND
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  54  62  42  62 /  70  40  10  10
MKL  50  59  38  60 /  80  60  10  10
JBR  49  59  39  58 /  80  50  10  10
TUP  55  68  41  64 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JLH/ARS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1032 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-160545-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1032 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT AND MAY
IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...PRIMARILY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WEST HELENA ARKANSAS TO OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI TO TUPELO MISSISSIPPI...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WITH ANY OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS OR LARGER
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

FURTHER NORTH...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...EAST
AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST
TENNESSEE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE
PRIMARY THREAT REMAINING LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
WITH A CONTINUED LARGE HAIL THREAT. THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST
WITH AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM
SYSTEM.

OTHERWISE THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS...AND
LAW ENFORCEMENT MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND AGAIN FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

JLH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

MSZ012-013-015-022-150500-
LAFAYETTE MS-PANOLA MS-PONTOTOC MS-CALHOUN MS-
1135 PM CDT FRI MAR 14 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHERN CALHOUN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHWESTERN PONTOTOC COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  LAFAYETTE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  EAST CENTRAL PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS
LOCATED FROM 5 MILES NORTH OF BURGESS TO 6 MILES EAST OF BANNER AT
1135 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CALHOUN...LAFAYETTE...PANOLA AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF OXFORD AND PONTOTOC...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
MIDNIGHT CDT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1207 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 PM     HAIL             3 NE TUPELO             34.29N 88.69W
03/14/2008  M0.75 INCH       LEE                MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUPELO.

&&

CCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1213 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 PM     HAIL             3 NE TUPELO             34.29N 88.69W
03/14/2008  M0.75 INCH       LEE                MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUPELO.

1155 PM     HAIL             5 SE JONESBORO          35.77N 90.62W
03/14/2008  M0.25 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JONESBORO.

&&

CCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1232 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 PM     HAIL             3 NE TUPELO             34.29N 88.69W
03/14/2008  M0.75 INCH       LEE                MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUPELO.

1155 PM     HAIL             5 SE JONESBORO          35.77N 90.62W
03/14/2008  M0.25 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JONESBORO.

1200 AM     HAIL             OLIVE BRANCH            36.17N 90.82W
03/15/2008  M1.75 INCH       RANDOLPH           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN OLIVE BRANCH.

1205 AM     HAIL             OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
03/15/2008  M0.88 INCH       DESOTO             MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN OLIVE BRANCH.

1205 AM     HAIL             OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
03/15/2008  M0.75 INCH       DESOTO             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.75 INCH HAIL IS REPORTED IN OLIVE BRANCH.

&&

CCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1238 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1144 PM     HAIL             3 NE TUPELO             34.29N 88.69W
03/14/2008  M0.75 INCH       LEE                MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF TUPELO.

1155 PM     HAIL             5 SE JONESBORO          35.77N 90.62W
03/14/2008  M0.25 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JONESBORO.

1200 AM     HAIL             OLIVE BRANCH            36.17N 90.82W
03/15/2008  M1.75 INCH       RANDOLPH           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN OLIVE BRANCH.

1205 AM     HAIL             OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
03/15/2008  M0.88 INCH       DESOTO             MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN OLIVE BRANCH.

1205 AM     HAIL             OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
03/15/2008  M0.75 INCH       DESOTO             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.75 INCH HAIL IS REPORTED IN OLIVE BRANCH.

1231 AM     HAIL             CRAWFORDSVILLE          35.23N 90.33W
03/15/2008  M1.75 INCH       CRITTENDEN         AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CRAWFORDSVILLE.

&&

CCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1245 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     HAIL             5 SE JONESBORO          35.77N 90.62W
03/14/2008  M0.25 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA SIZE HAIL 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JONESBORO.

1200 AM     HAIL             OLIVE BRANCH            36.17N 90.82W
03/15/2008  M1.75 INCH       RANDOLPH           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN OLIVE BRANCH.

1205 AM     HAIL             OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
03/15/2008  M0.88 INCH       DESOTO             MS   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN OLIVE BRANCH.

1205 AM     HAIL             OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
03/15/2008  M0.75 INCH       DESOTO             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.75 INCH HAIL IS REPORTED IN OLIVE BRANCH.

1231 AM     HAIL             CRAWFORDSVILLE          35.23N 90.33W
03/15/2008  M1.75 INCH       CRITTENDEN         AR   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN CRAWFORDSVILLE.

1233 AM     HAIL             BARTLETT                35.22N 89.84W
03/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED IN BARTLETT.

&&

CCD