Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
219 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID SOUTH INCLUDING EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A STRONG UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE 500 MB SPEED MAX STARTING TO SPREAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 997 MB AND TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO N CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SE MISSOURI THIS EVENING
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGH TEMP RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT
MEMPHIS. AS A RESULT SBCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID SOUTH AND THIS WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BY BACKING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
SLIGHTLY PRODUCING 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OVER 300 M2/S2. MEANWHILE
THE 500 MB SPEED MAX SPREADING INTO THE ARKLATEX WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE MID SOUTH PRODUCING TREMENDOUS VERTICAL SHEAR.

THE 18Z LZK SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING
TO DEEPEN WITH A WEAKENING AND LIFTING CAP AT 700 MB. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAP ARE VERY STEEP...GREATER THAN 7 C/KM. AS
THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL INTENSIFY
AND MAY BECOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THESE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT
FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TH EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL EVENTUAL MERGE INTO A LINE OR
LINE SEGMENTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR WINDS OF 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
IN THE 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROFS
SWINGS THROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION. A STRONGER UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN SOME COLDER TEMPS AND
DRY WEATHER. GFS AND ECMWF AT ODDS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TX BIG BEND REGION WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE THIS SYSTEM IS ABSENT FROM THE ECMWF AND AS A
RESULT THE FLOW IS WESTERLY AND DRY. ATTM WILL INTRODUCE LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR TUE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  46  48  31  55 / 100  10  10  10
MKL  48  49  27  50 / 100  20  10  10
JBR  42  47  29  51 / 100  10  10  10
TUP  52  54  30  55 / 100  20  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
456 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             4 E MARVELL             34.56N 90.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   POST OFFICE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN POPLAR GROVE.

0450 PM     HAIL             3 N BARTLETT            35.26N 89.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION OF PLEASANT RIDGE AND
            AUSTEN PEAY.

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             4 E MARVELL             34.56N 90.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   POST OFFICE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN POPLAR GROVE.

0450 PM     HAIL             3 N BARTLETT            35.26N 89.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION OF PLEASANT RIDGE AND
            AUSTEN PEAY.

0503 PM     TORNADO          ARLINGTON               35.28N 89.66W
02/05/2008                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 70 AND HIGHWAY 385.

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
517 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             4 E MARVELL             34.56N 90.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   POST OFFICE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN POPLAR GROVE.

0450 PM     HAIL             3 N BARTLETT            35.26N 89.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION OF PLEASANT RIDGE AND
            AUSTEN PEAY.

0503 PM     TORNADO          ARLINGTON               35.28N 89.66W
02/05/2008                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 70 AND HIGHWAY 385.

0513 PM     HAIL             DUBLIN                  34.08N 90.50W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       COAHOMA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
525 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             4 E MARVELL             34.56N 90.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   POST OFFICE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN POPLAR GROVE.

0450 PM     HAIL             3 N BARTLETT            35.26N 89.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION OF PLEASANT RIDGE AND
            AUSTEN PEAY.

0503 PM     TORNADO          ARLINGTON               35.28N 89.66W
02/05/2008                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 70 AND HIGHWAY 385.

0513 PM     HAIL             DUBLIN                  34.08N 90.50W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       COAHOMA            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0523 PM     HAIL             CLARKSDALE              34.20N 90.58W
02/05/2008  E1.00 INCH       COAHOMA            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN CLARKSDALE.

0523 PM     TORNADO          HORN LAKE               34.96N 90.04W
02/05/2008                   DESOTO             MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND IN HORN LAKE.

&&

MBS

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>