Severe Thunderstorm Warning 419, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
126 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TO EAST TEXAS. HAVE BEEN IMPRESSED BY THE SUSTAINED WINDS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS WELL AS MAX TEMPS AND HIGH DEW POINTS GIVEN
THE END OF DECEMBER.

ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE
LINE OF STORMS TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN TO ENTER THE FORECAST AREA
SHORTLY AFTER 3 PM...AND CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. WIND
DAMAGE REPORTS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AS WELL AS OVER AREAS SURROUNDING ST. LOUIS. THREATS FOR
DAMAGING WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA OVERNIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW OVER
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE CLEARING. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BECOME NEAR NORMAL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.

TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING. THUS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
FRONT.

RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO START OFF NEXT WEEKEND.

AC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE STRONG AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.
FROPA...MEM 02-04JBR 23-01MKL 03-05TUP 04-06. SCT CELLS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF FRONT INTO +TSRA...SOME SEVERE. FRONT TO
PRODUCE WIND STORMS...POSSIBLE TORS. HOUR OR TWO OF RAIN AFTER
FRONTAL PASSAGE...THEN SKIES CLEAR OUT.  LEFT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS. AVN INTERESTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH AND
PLAN CAREFULLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  43  55  36  61 / 100  10   0   0
MKL  41  52  30  56 / 100  10   0   0
JBR  35  49  32  55 /  70  10   0   0
TUP  45  56  34  58 / 100  10   0   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
500 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

ARZ035-036-048-049-MSZ007-272330-
CROSS AR-LEE AR-ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-TUNICA MS-
500 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  WESTERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  LEE COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED FROM 6 MILES EAST OF FAIR OAKS TO 17 MILES SOUTH OF GARRET
GROVE AT 500 PM CST...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN...CROSS...LEE...ST. FRANCIS AND TUNICA
COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR EARLE...FORREST CITY...HUGHES...
MADISON...MARIANNA...PALESTINE...PARKIN...VILLAGE CREEK STATE PARK
AND WYNNE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CST. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT ALSO INCLUDES MIDWAY LAKE...TUNICA LAKE AND WAPANOCCA LAKE.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
514 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG OLIVE BRANCH            34.95N 89.83W
12/27/2008                   DESOTO             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 45 MPH HAVE CAUSED POWER OUTAGES
            ACROSS DE SOTO COUNTY.

0408 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYNARD                 36.42N 90.90W
12/27/2008                   RANDOLPH           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN IN MAYNARD.

0410 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW WALCOTT            36.08N 90.73W
12/27/2008  E60.00 MPH       GREENE             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0435 PM     TSTM WND GST     PEACH ORCHARD           36.28N 90.66W
12/27/2008  E60.00 MPH       CLAY               AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0455 PM     TSTM WND GST     RECTOR                  36.26N 90.29W
12/27/2008  E60.00 MPH       CLAY               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0505 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PIGGOTT                 36.38N 90.20W
12/27/2008                   CLAY               AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN AND POWER OUTAGES IN PIGGOTT.

&&

CCD

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