Severe Thunderstorm Warning 404, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WWUS54 KMEG 072018
SVSMEG

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

MSC107-135-161-072028-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0404.000000T0000Z-081007T2030Z/
PANOLA MS-YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-
318 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN TALLAHATCHIE...
NORTHWESTERN YALOBUSHA AND SOUTHEASTERN PANOLA COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...

AT 318 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE WEAKENED AND NO LONGER 
POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. THEREFORE...THE SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3397 9030 3408 9017 3408 9014 3411 9013
      3434 8984 3422 8971 3420 8972 3419 8969
      3416 8965 3384 9016
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 229DEG 25KT 3410 8996

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1035 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

.UPDATE...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH TOWARD THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO THE SOUTH INTO
THE ARKLATEX. A WARM FRONT IS TRYING TO PUSH NORTH INTO NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MUCH THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING.
BEHIND THIS AREA OF PRECIP THERE IS A BREAK IN THE RAIN ACROSS THE
DELTA. NOT SURE HOW LONG THIS BREAK WILL LAST BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND COLD FRONT APPROACH. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE THE
BIG QUESTION MARK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH OF THIS FRONT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH TEMPS APPROACHING 80 AND SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG.
IF THE BREAK IN RAIN PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH AND WE GET SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND
THE WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH THEN THERE MAY BE A RISK FOR A SEVERE
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD A SLIGHT RISK TO THE
HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...THE
WARM SECTOR WILL PROBABLY BE PINCHED OFF AS THE SYSTEM OCCLUDES
DIMINISHING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT LATER THIS EVENING.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT HESITANT TO CUT THEM SINCE WE WILL LIKELY
SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008/

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS EARLY MORNING. FOR TODAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
AREA AND EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY
AND SLOWLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT. IT HAS TAKEN
SOME TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA AS DEWPOINTS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE STILL REMAIN IN
THE MID 50S. THE BEST INSTABILITY TODAY WILL BE ACROSS AREAS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM JONESBORO TO MEMPHIS TO CORINTH WHERE A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
AS THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
CLIMB VERY MUCH FROM CURRENT TEMPERATURES WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND
RAIN PRESENT SO HAVE GENERALLY FORECAST MID 70S FOR TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
EAST AS THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER
THE AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS AREAS EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT...ANOTHER
DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S CAN BE EXPECTED.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON THURSDAY AS
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA. SKIES WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE. A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE REALLY
ESTABLISHES ITSELF DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO ONCE
AGAIN REACH WELL INTO THE MIDDLE 80S WHICH IS ABOUT 8 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE
MIDSOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  76  63  73  59 / 100  80  20   0
MKL  76  61  73  55 / 100  90  30  10
JBR  75  59  72  54 / 100  70  20   0
TUP  76  62  75  57 /  90  90  30  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

SJM/KNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1052 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-081145-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1052 AM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM WYNNE ARKANSAS TO MEMPHIS TENNESSEE TO PONTOTOC
MISSISSIPPI. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH INTO
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MEANWHILE A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND TRIGGER
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 4
PM CDT AND MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP.

ADDITIONALLY...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS
CAN BE EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID SOUTH.

SJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
216 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

MSZ001-TNZ088-071945-
DE SOTO MS-SHELBY TN-
216 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  EASTERN DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHEASTERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF LEWISBURG AT 216 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN DESOTO AND SHELBY COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR
COLLIERVILLE...GERMANTOWN AND OLIVE BRANCH...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
245 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

MSZ020-021-072015-
YALOBUSHA MS-TALLAHATCHIE MS-
245 PM CDT TUE OCT 7 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHWESTERN YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WAS LOCATED 7 MILES
WEST OF PAYNES AT 245 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES...INCLUDING LOCATIONS
NEAR CHARLESTON AND GEORGE PAYNE STATE PARK...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT ALSO INCLUDES GRASSY
LAKE.