Severe Thunderstorm Warning 395, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
112 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

.UPDATE...

COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED POPS NORTHWEST OF A FORREST CITY ARKANSAS
TO PARIS TENNESSEE LINE. ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH DUE TO RAIN COOLED AIR AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008/

UPDATE...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FLASH FLOODING
APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN.
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY AND DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEST TENNESSEE WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN. SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MORE PROMINENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO A MORE UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. UPDATED HWO WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2008/

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
KENTUCKY BACK THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
GRADUALLY INCREASING AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO DRIFT SOUTH WITH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE 70S. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY
IS THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MID SOUTH TODAY. REGIONAL
WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
HOWEVER...THIS ELEVATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES INTO THE MID SOUTH WHERE WEAK RIDGING IS STILL IN PLACE.
NONETHELESS...EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING WITH BEST CHANCES OF RAINFALL MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 THIS
AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY. DESPITE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH AN ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT TODAY AS 700-500 MB LAYER MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL AVERAGE BELOW 6 C/KM. IF A COLD POOL CAN DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON FROM ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS/NICKEL SIZE
HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES COMING TO AN END BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID SOUTH. LONG RANGE
MODELS STILL INDICATE THE FRONT MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SUNDAY THEN STALLING OUT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. AS A RESULT...KEPT RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  71  91  68  91 /  10  10   0   0
MKL  64  90  59  86 /  10  10   0   0
JBR  65  89  62  90 /  10   0   0   0
TUP  68  90  62  90 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

CCD/CJC

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

TNZ052>054-071830-
HENDERSON TN-MADISON TN-CHESTER TN-
1235 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHERN CHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  HENDERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  MADISON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS
LOCATED FROM 4 MILES NORTH OF FAIRVIEW TO 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEMIS
AT 1235 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THESE STORMS ARE INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CHESTER...HENDERSON AND MADISON COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITIES OF HENDERSON...JACKSON AND LEXINGTON...SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130
PM CDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

MSZ016-017-071830-
LEE MS-ITAWAMBA MS-
1242 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  SOUTHERN ITAWAMBA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  SOUTHERN LEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER
EVERGREEN AT 1242 PM CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE.

PEOPLE IN ITAWAMBA AND LEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
FULTON...TUPELO AND VERONA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 PM CDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

MSZ001-002-008-071845-
DE SOTO MS-MARSHALL MS-TATE MS-
102 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  EAST CENTRAL DESOTO COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  MARSHALL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4
MILES SOUTHEAST OF RED BANKS AT 102 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN DESOTO...MARSHALL AND TATE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
HOLLY SPRINGS...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CDT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
108 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PARAGOULD               36.06N 90.51W
08/07/2008                   GREENE             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SIX TO SEVEN INCHES OF WATER ON SOUTH 27 STREET IN
            PARAGOULD. REPORTED BY KAIT-TV.

1105 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLYTHEVILLE             35.84N 90.37W
08/07/2008                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER BEGINNING TO COVER ROADWAYS IN BLYTHEVILLE.

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NE RIPLEY             35.84N 89.42W
08/07/2008                   LAUDERDALE         TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ON CURVE NANKIPOO ROAD NORTHEAST OF RIPLEY.

1227 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S AMORY               33.92N 88.48W
08/07/2008                   MONROE             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON RICHARDSON ROAD.

&&

JKT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
113 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PARAGOULD               36.06N 90.51W
08/07/2008                   GREENE             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SIX TO SEVEN INCHES OF WATER ON SOUTH 27 STREET IN
            PARAGOULD. REPORTED BY KAIT-TV.

1105 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLYTHEVILLE             35.84N 90.37W
08/07/2008                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER BEGINNING TO COVER ROADWAYS IN BLYTHEVILLE.

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NE RIPLEY             35.84N 89.42W
08/07/2008                   LAUDERDALE         TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ON CURVE NANKIPOO ROAD NORTHEAST OF RIPLEY.

1227 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S AMORY               33.92N 88.48W
08/07/2008                   MONROE             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON RICHARDSON ROAD.

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SENATOBIA               34.62N 89.97W
08/07/2008                   TATE               MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES REPORTED DOWN BY SENATOBIA FIRE.

&&

JKT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
123 PM CDT THU AUG 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1005 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PARAGOULD               36.06N 90.51W
08/07/2008                   GREENE             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SIX TO SEVEN INCHES OF WATER ON SOUTH 27 STREET IN
            PARAGOULD. REPORTED BY KAIT-TV.

1105 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BLYTHEVILLE             35.84N 90.37W
08/07/2008                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER BEGINNING TO COVER ROADWAYS IN BLYTHEVILLE.

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NE RIPLEY             35.84N 89.42W
08/07/2008                   LAUDERDALE         TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWNED ON CURVE NANKIPOO ROAD NORTHEAST OF RIPLEY.

1227 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S AMORY               33.92N 88.48W
08/07/2008                   MONROE             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN ON RICHARDSON ROAD.

0105 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SENATOBIA               34.62N 89.97W
08/07/2008                   TATE               MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES AND POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN BY SENATOBIA FIRE.

&&

JKT