Severe Thunderstorm Warning 322, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN STRONG BUT FOR THE MOST PART...HAVE
STAYED UNDER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CRITERIA. THESE STORMS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
MOVES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST. THINK THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED TO EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR.
AREAS OF FOG...SOME POSSIBLY DENSE...WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN MUCH OF THE SAME LOCATIONS AS LAST NIGHT. DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE EVENING
SHIFT REEVALUATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY
HELPING TO INITIATE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AGAIN BUT NOT AS
WIDESPREAD AS TODAY. AS A RESULT...WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE RIVER WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND
EVENTUALLY BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA. AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION LOOKS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ON MONDAY WHERE THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE GREATEST.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY WHERE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
DRY AND WARM WITH SOME AREAS NEARING THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS.

BY MID WEEK...ANOTHER COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO
STALL JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE
ONCE AGAIN BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING SOMEWHAT
DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE LOW TO POSSIBLY MID 90S WITH LOWS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  91  75  92 /  30  20  10  10
MKL  66  90  70  90 /  20  20  10  10
JBR  70  93  73  95 /  30  20  10  10
TUP  69  88  71  90 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KNS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-062245-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
339 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS
WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

KNS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
547 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

TNZ049-050-089-052330-
FAYETTE TN-HAYWOOD TN-TIPTON TN-
547 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHWESTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  SOUTHEASTERN TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 13 MILES WEST OF DANCYVILLE AT 547 PM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 12 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN FAYETTE...HAYWOOD AND TIPTON COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THIS
STORM CLOSELY..

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             TREMONT                 34.23N 88.25W
07/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN TREMONT.

0425 PM     HAIL             4 S HERNANDO            34.77N 89.99W
07/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       DESOTO             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL ON HIGHWAY 51 AND WHEELER ROAD.

0533 PM     HAIL             3 NE HERNANDO           34.86N 89.95W
07/05/2008  E1.75 INCH       DESOTO             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL HAIL ON GETWELL ROAD AND BYHALIA ROAD.

&&

CCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
559 PM CDT SAT JUL 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0420 PM     HAIL             TREMONT                 34.23N 88.25W
07/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       ITAWAMBA           MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN TREMONT.

0425 PM     HAIL             4 S HERNANDO            34.77N 89.99W
07/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       DESOTO             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL ON HIGHWAY 51 AND WHEELER ROAD.

0533 PM     HAIL             3 NE HERNANDO           34.86N 89.95W
07/05/2008  E1.75 INCH       DESOTO             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            GOLF BALL HAIL ON GETWELL ROAD AND BYHALIA ROAD.

0555 PM     FLASH FLOOD      COLDWATER               34.69N 89.98W
07/05/2008                   TATE               MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            INTERSECTION OF WEST SERVICE ROAD AND NORTH STREET IN
            COLDWATER IS FLOODED AND CLOSED TO TRAFFIC.

&&

CCD

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