Severe Thunderstorm Warning 312, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
955 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008

.UPDATE...
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN MCV OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. AS A
RESULT...HAVE RAISED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR TODAY. ALSO ADJUSTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA AND SHOULD HOLD TOGETHER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING. NO OTHER CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008/

DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS RAIN CHANCES. GOES WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE LOWER/MID MS
RIVER VALLEY...DOWNSTREAM FROM A SHARP HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS.

A SHORTWAVE TROF OVER SOUTHEAST KS WAS EVIDENT IN BOTH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY AND 400MB WIND PROFILER PLOT EARLY THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AR
THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THIS AREA OF RAIN WAS
HAVING LIMITED SUCCESS MAINTAINING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT
APPROACHED THE MS RIVER...LIKELY A RESULT OF DRIER LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC AIR EVIDENT ON THE 00Z AREA SOUNDINGS.

CHANCE POPS APPEAR REASONABLE FOR TODAY... AS SURFACE HEATING
COMBINES WITH THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR
ORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT A WEAK
SURFACE FRONT TO DROP INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE LATER TODAY. NOT MUCH OF WIND FIELD EITHER SIDE OF THIS
FRONT...AND IT MAY LIFT NORTH IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHING THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF
THIS NEXT NORTHWEST FLOW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS LIMITED. 00Z GFS
QPF FIELDS WERE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK...AS THE MODEL
ATTEMPTS TO PREDICT MCS FLARE UPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVES.
GIVEN THE OVERALL PATTERN OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...NUMEROUS
SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION... WILL CONTINUE
THE DIURNALLY WEIGHTED 20/30 POPS INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS BUILD THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MS
RIVER VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. DESPITE SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING
ABOVE 70F...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LIMITED TO DIURNAL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RETURN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL READINGS AS WE APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  90  72  89  72 /  60  30  30  20
MKL  87  68  86  67 /  60  30  30  20
JBR  87  68  88  69 /  80  30  30  10
TUP  91  71  86  69 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KNS/PWB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1140 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008

MSZ005-006-009-041730-
ALCORN MS-TISHOMINGO MS-PRENTISS MS-
1140 AM CDT FRI JUL 4 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  SOUTHEASTERN ALCORN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  NORTHEASTERN PRENTISS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
  CENTRAL TISHOMINGO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LEEDY AT 1140 AM CDT...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN ALCORN...PRENTISS AND TISHOMINGO COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF IUKA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT.