Severe Thunderstorm Warning 303, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
745 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.UPDATE...
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE POPS TO CATEGORICAL
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THIS EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL AS SOME
SMALL HAIL.  THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS SEEMS TO BE TAKING MORE OF A SOUTHEASTWARD DIVE.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...WE MAY NEED TO EXTEND THE CURRENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER
CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008/

DISCUSSION...

WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S WHERE IT
HASNT RAINED YET AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. AS A
RESULT...AIRMASS HAS BECOME VERY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES BETWEEN
2500-3000 AND LI/S BETWEEN -4 AND -6. NUMEROUS PULSE
TYPE/DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
PARTS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN IN CONTROL OF THE MIDSOUTH WEATHER
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SOME AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST. ABUNDANT INSTABILITY
AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE PRESENT AS THE BOUNDARY ENTERS THE
NORTHERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH...SO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF THIS AREA AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY SERVE AS A RENEWED FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS BOUNDARY SAGS TO THE SOUTH. RETAINED THE
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND TAPERED OFF TO SLIGHT
CHANCES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT TO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY AS AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
UNSTABLE.  SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... AND PARTS OF WEST
TENNESSEE...WHICH WILL END SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
THESE PARTS.

THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE RAIN-FREE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEAK RIDGING SETTLES BACK ACROSS THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.

HEADING INTO THE NEXT WEEK...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AS SOUTHWEST RIDGE AND EASTERN CONUS TROUGH BECOMES
ESTABLISHED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES TO QUICKLY
DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF
NEXT WEEK...BUT TIMING EACH INDIVIDUAL QUICK MOVING IMPULSE WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE THIS FAR OUT. FIRST DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO DROP
DOWN ON MONDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER IMPULSE ON TUESDAY. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT AT THIS TIME AS THERE EXISTS SOME TIMING AND STRENGTH
ISSUES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. POPS IN THE EXTENDED WILL MOST
LIKELY HAVE TO BE REFINED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS MODEL
DISCREPANCIES WILL HOPEFULLY BE RESOLVED. THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT
END POPS WERE MAINTAINED THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  89  70  94 /  70  30  10  10
MKL  70  88  63  91 /  90  30  10  10
JBR  70  89  65  93 / 100  20  10  10
TUP  71  88  67  92 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KNS/TAB

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1001 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 W CARUTHERSVILLE      36.18N 89.70W
06/13/2008                   PEMISCOT           MO   PUBLIC

            WINDS BLEW PART OF THE ROOF OFF OF RADIO STATION KCRV IN
            CARUTHERSVILLE. POWER IS OUT IN PART OF THE AREA. A FEW
            TREES DOWN IN CARUTHERSVILL AS WELL.

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION CITY              36.42N 89.05W
06/13/2008                   OBION              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN UNION CITY.

0850 PM     HAIL             COTTAGE GROVE           36.38N 88.48W
06/13/2008  E1.00 INCH       HENRY              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN COTTAGE GROVE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED
            AT 45 MPH. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT COTTAGE GROVE.

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W DYER                36.07N 89.08W
06/13/2008                   GIBSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN BETWEEN DYER AND YORKVILLE.

0905 PM     HAIL             2 N PARIS               36.33N 88.31W
06/13/2008  E0.75 INCH       HENRY              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL JUST NORTH OF PARIS.

&&

CCD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1008 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

ARZ036-TNZ049-050-088-089-140415-
CRITTENDEN AR-FAYETTE TN-SHELBY TN-HAYWOOD TN-TIPTON TN-
1008 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHERN CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  NORTHERN FAYETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  HAYWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  NORTHERN SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...
  TIPTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40
TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED FROM BELLE EAGLE TO 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GILMORE AT 1008 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN...FAYETTE...HAYWOOD...SHELBY AND TIPTON
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BARTLETT...BROWNSVILLE...
COVINGTON...MARION...MILLINGTON...TURRELL AND WEST MEMPHIS...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM CDT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1016 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 W CARUTHERSVILLE      36.18N 89.70W
06/13/2008                   PEMISCOT           MO   PUBLIC

            WINDS BLEW PART OF THE ROOF OFF OF RADIO STATION KCRV IN
            CARUTHERSVILLE. POWER IS OUT IN PART OF THE AREA. A FEW
            TREES DOWN IN CARUTHERSVILL AS WELL.

0805 PM     TSTM WND DMG     UNION CITY              36.42N 89.05W
06/13/2008                   OBION              TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN UNION CITY.

0850 PM     HAIL             COTTAGE GROVE           36.38N 88.48W
06/13/2008  E1.00 INCH       HENRY              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN COTTAGE GROVE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED
            AT 45 MPH. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT COTTAGE GROVE.

0850 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W DYER                36.07N 89.08W
06/13/2008                   GIBSON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN BETWEEN DYER AND YORKVILLE.

0902 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TRENTON                 35.97N 88.94W
06/13/2008                   GIBSON             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 BIG TREES DOWN BLOCKING CHRISTMASVILLE ROAD IN TRENTON.

0905 PM     HAIL             2 N PARIS               36.33N 88.31W
06/13/2008  E0.75 INCH       HENRY              TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL JUST NORTH OF PARIS.

&&

CCD