Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
352 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

.DISCUSSION...
IT APPEARS THAT THE MIDSOUTH WILL BREAK FREE OF THE RECENT HOT DRY
SPELL LATE IN THE WEEK. FIRST FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT.

MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED AN OPEN TROF
EXTENDING FROM ND...SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL TX. A SHORTWAVE LOBE OF
ENERGY WAS EVIDENT OVER KS...LIFTING EAST TOWARD MO. THE REMNANTS
OF AN OVERNIGHT MCS OVER OK NEVER COMPLETELY DISSIPATED TODAY...AND
HAS REFIRED OVER THE OUACHITA MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND
WESTERN AR. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WAS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AR...WITH SURFACE
BASED CAPES OT 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. OVER THE MIDSOUTH...CAPES WERE
GENERALLY NEAR 1500 J/K. MODERATELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS...AROUND 8C
AT 700MB...WERE SUPPRESSING MOST...THOUGH NOT ALL...DEEP CONVECTION
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FORCING.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF
THE MS RIVER AND OVER FAR NORTHWEST TN THIS EVENING...AS THE COLD
POOL INTERCEPTS THE WARM AND CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THROUGH
SUNSET. EXPECT A GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DECREASING COVERAGE TREND
OVER THE MIDSOUTH LATE TONIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY
STABILIZE AND THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS FROM KS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE SHEARED/WEAKENED
SOME AS IT ENCOUNTERS EASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT IN BY WEAK TROPICAL
UPPER LOW OVER FL.

TUESDAY WILL SEE A THE MAIN CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY / FRONT STALLED
OVER THE MIDSOUTH UNDER WEAK UPPER FLOW. THE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD
RESULT IN DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAKER CONVECTIVE INHIBITION OVER
NORTHEAST MS AND THE TN RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH AS
IT HAS TODAY OVER SOUTHWEST AL/SOUTHEAST MS. TROPICAL MOISTURE
AND WEAK EAST/SOUTHEAST MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD A BIT FURTHER
INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DIURNAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF MEMPHIS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF CROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TIER STATES...EVENTUALLY RESULTING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY THE WEEKEND. BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF BRING A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY.

UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...DRY AND COOLER CONTINENTAL SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND...PUSHING
THE WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR TO NEAR THE COAST. GFS HAS BEEN QUITE
CONSISTENT IN RECENT RUNS IS WELL CORROBORATED BY THE 12Z ECMWF IN
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...LEADING TO BETTER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST
CONFIDENCE.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  72  91  74  93 /  60  20  10  20
MKL  70  88  67  91 /  50  20  10  20
JBR  70  90  71  93 /  60  10  10  10
TUP  71  90  70  90 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
502 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-110015-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
502 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM MEMPHIS TO DRESDEN TENNESSEE...MAINLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. LARGE HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE WILL BE THE SECONDARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH MID EVENING...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND FAR NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE.

TLSJR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
555 PM CDT MON JUN 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 PM     HAIL             POCAHONTAS              36.26N 90.97W
06/09/2008  E0.75 INCH       RANDOLPH           AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN POCAHONTAS.

0527 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CARAWAY                 35.76N 90.33W
06/09/2008                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            LARGE TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN CARAWAY...STRUCURAL
            DAMAGE TO A BARN.

&&

CCD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
557 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

ARZ027-035-092330-
CROSS AR-POINSETT AR-
557 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  CENTRAL CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED OVER
VANNDALE AT 557 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CROSS AND POINSETT COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
HARRISBURG...TRUMANN AND WYNNE...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY..

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

TLSJR

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