Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1014 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

.UPDATE...
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS. HAVE
RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL IN THESE AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR RAIN
CHANCES. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH
THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THESE STORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SO HAVE INCREASED
POPS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH THE RAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...HAVE
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA WHERE RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008/

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST THEN BACK
THROUGH MISSOURI...KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. REGIONAL INFRARED SATELLITE/WSR-88
RADAR TRENDS SHOW CONVECTION LOCATED PRIMARILY ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY UPSTREAM. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN
THE SHORT TERM.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...QUASI-STATIONARY
WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT CLOSER TO THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND DISSIPATE AS IT ENCOUNTERS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NONETHELESS...MID LEVEL SHORT WAVES
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND COMBINE WITH THE WARM AND MOIST
UNSTABLE AIRMASS...RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. STRONG THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO TRANSLATE EAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z LONG RANGE MODEL RUN
SOLUTIONS INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AS RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY PROBLEMS PERSIST WITH THE ECMWF
AND ESPECIALLY THE 00Z GFS. AS A RESULT...HAVE LEANED TOWARD A LOW
CONFIDENCE 00Z ECMWF/18Z GFS BLEND. AT THIS TIME MODELS INDICATE A
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  84  64  84  64 /  30  20  20  30
MKL  82  57  83  58 /  30  20  10  20
JBR  78  58  81  61 /  80  20  20  30
TUP  83  60  84  59 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

KNS/CJC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-231845-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
1138 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THESE AREAS AND A FEW OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...EMERGENCY MANAGERS...AND LAW
ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH 800 PM CDT TODAY. PLEASE REPORT ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS.

JLH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1259 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

TNZ088-221915-
SHELBY TN-
1259 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  SHELBY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILLINGTON AT 1259 PM
CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 32 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE AND NO WARNINGS ARE
ANTICIPATED.

PEOPLE IN SHELBY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF BARTLETT...
COLLIERVILLE...GERMANTOWN...MIDTOWN MEMPHIS AND MILLINGTON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT.

.A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT
AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
106 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1150 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BROOKLAND               35.90N 90.58W
04/22/2008                   CRAIGHEAD          AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREES DOWN

1150 AM     HAIL             BROOKLAND               35.90N 90.58W
04/22/2008  E1.00 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

1232 PM     HAIL             BLYTHEVILLE             35.93N 89.92W
04/22/2008  E0.88 INCH       MISSISSIPPI        AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

0100 PM     HAIL             WYNNE                   35.23N 90.79W
04/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       CROSS              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RJO