Flash Flood Warning 155, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 241824
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

TNC039-077-241945-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0155.000000T0000Z-081224T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DECATUR TN-HENDERSON TN-
1224 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 PM CST FOR
HENDERSON AND DECATUR COUNTIES...

AT 1224 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. OVER THE PAST HOUR
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN
ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NATCHEZ
  TRACE STATE PARK...NATCHEZ TRACE STATE FOREST...WILDERSVILLE...
  PARSONS...LEXINGTON...DARDEN...BLUE GOOSE AND BARGERTON.

THIS WARNING INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING LOW WATER CROSSINGS IN DECATUR
COUNTY BIBLE HILL ROAD AT SHIPMAN CREEK...BIBLE HILL ROAD IN
PARSONS...BOHANNON LD ROAD AT RICKETTS CREEK...CONCORD ROAD AT LESTER
CREEK...FAIRGROUND ROAD...HAYNES ROAD AT HOG CREEK...HOG CREEK ROAD
AT MILLS BRANCH...LARGE ROAD AT RUSSIAN CREEK...LARGO ROAD 4...
NORTHWOOD STREET IN PARSONS...OAK PARK ROAD AT CHEROKEE HEIGHTS
ROAD...OLD LEXINGTON ROAD AT BEAR CREEK AND W O BAKER ROAD.

.ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED 
AREA.

.MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE
USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS
POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING
FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3539 8801 3542 8806 3539 8810 3538 8819
      3543 8824 3543 8836 3550 8836 3550 8848
      3561 8861 3582 8859 3582 8818 3585 8817
      3586 8806 3582 8802 3582 8797 3573 8802
      3561 8803 3551 8796 3544 8804 3540 8797

$$

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 241949
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
149 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

TNC039-077-241959-
/O.EXP.KMEG.FF.W.0155.000000T0000Z-081224T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DECATUR TN-HENDERSON TN-
149 PM CST WED DEC 24 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR HENDERSON AND DECATUR
COUNTIES...

THE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS EXITED THE WARNED 
AREA. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.


LAT...LON 3539 8801 3542 8806 3539 8810 3538 8819
      3543 8824 3543 8836 3550 8836 3550 8848
      3561 8861 3582 8859 3582 8818 3585 8817
      3586 8806 3582 8802 3582 8797 3573 8802
      3561 8803 3551 8796 3544 8804 3540 8797

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
951 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES AND POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. LOWERED
POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS THE
BULK OF THE RAIN HAS ALREADY MOVED EAST OF THIS AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE POSSIBILITY OF
FLOODING WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS THIS LINE MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY CONFINED ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT PASSES...EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WINDS TO TURN
TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

KNS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008/

DISCUSSION...10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
WISCONSIN BACK THROUGH NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND THEN INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS WEST OF A LINE KENNETT TO
JONESBORO WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS
PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ON
SATURDAY.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
LOCATED NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A WARM CONVEYOR
BELT WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF TOWARDS
EARLY EVENING ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND RAIN
CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG...AND
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAY RESULT IN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TODAY.

COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MID SOUTH
ON CHRISTMAS DAY BRINGING DRY WEATHER AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS DRY PERIOD WILL NOT LAST LONG AS THE
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WARM AND MOIST...UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE
LOWER 70S SOUTH.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON A POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK
ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FAVORABLE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT...STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET
DYNAMICS...MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND 0-1
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES AROUND 300 M2/S2 SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
MODE WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE FORM OF A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH A
TORNADO THREAT CONTAINED WITHIN THE LINE SEGMENTS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE. LATER SHIFTS WILL RE-EVALUATE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND MAKE NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST AND POSSIBLE
THREATS AS THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. STAY
TUNED...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING DRY
WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES NEARLY
ZONAL NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAFS

KNQA/KLZK RADARS SHOW NUMEROUS MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AR...INTO WEST TN AND NORTH MS. THIS
PRECIPITATION WAS BEING FED BY 55 KT WINDS AROUND FL020. HAVE
DECIDED TO KEEP LLWS IN THE TAFS BASED ON A 30 KT GUST
DIFFERENTIAL BETWEEN THE GROUND AND FL020. NAM MODEL SUGGEST THESE
LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN 15Z TO 18Z.

GIVEN ISOLATED NATURE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP
VICINITY THUNDER AND KEEP PREVAILING AND TEMPO WX AS JUST RAIN BEYOND
14Z FOR KMEM. ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN CLEARING THE TERMINALS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON... 18Z TO 20Z...AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER
AIR. KTUP WILL BE THE LAST TO CLEAR AND MAY SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON.

KEPT FOG OUT FOR THE OUTER PERIODS TONIGHT...GIVEN DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. WILL HAVE TO WATCH KMKL HOWEVER. EXPECT
VFR FOR KMEM.

PWB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  67  37  57  52 / 100  10  10  50
MKL  64  31  52  48 / 100  10  10  50
JBR  60  31  50  46 /  50  10  10  50
TUP  65  40  59  55 / 100  40  10  50

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-251200-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
508 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY BECOME STRONG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLY SMALL
HAIL AS THE THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
BECOME SEVERE. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AS THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT DRAWS CLOSER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE
WEATHER OPERATIONS ON SATURDAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
729 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008

ARZ027-241345-
POINSETT AR-
729 AM CST WED DEC 24 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  EASTERN POINSETT COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 10
MILES WEST OF MARKED TREE AT 729 AM CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55
MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS SHOWING WEAK ROTATION AND IS BEING
MONITORED.

PEOPLE IN POINSETT COUNTY...INCLUDING LOCATIONS NEAR LEPANTO...MARKED
TREE AND TYRONZA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY THIS SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 AM CST.