Flash Flood Warning 153, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
612 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH 7 PM CST ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS EVENING ARE
THE FIRST CONCERNS. THE NEXT CONCERN MAY BE POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. USED A BLEND MAINLY OF THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS...BUT DID NOT PREFER ONE MODEL OVER ANOTHER.

THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WERE TO CANCEL THE
WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NE MS
AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.

AT 345 PM CST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OCCURRING OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA WITH RAIN FREE CONDITIONS NORTH OF A WYNNE AR TO
UNION CITY TN LINE AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST OF A HOUSTON TO IUKA MS
LINE. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 50S OVER WEST TN TO LOWER
70S NEAR ABERDEEN MS. A COLD FRONT WAS JUST MOVING INTO NE AR.

THROUGH 7 PM CST...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OF A COFFEEVILLE TO IUKA MS LINE WHERE
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH IS THE MAIN HAZARD AND THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE OF NICKEL HAIL OR TORNADO. LIFTED INDICES 0 TO -1
SUPPORT A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE. ANY SEVERE REPORTS IN THIS
AREA WOULD BE ISOLATED AND LOCALIZED...IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER
OCCURS AT ALL. THE THREAT WILL END AFTER 7 PM WITH RAIN STABILIZING
THE AIR.

AS FAR AS THE WIND ADVISORY...CANCELLED IT IN MOST PLACES EXCEPT
NE MS AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE AIR AND
PREVENTED MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT. WINDS OVER NE MS MAY GUST
TO 40 MPH THROUGH 6/7 PM CST WHERE THE AIR IS DRIER. THERE MAY BE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BUT GUSTS WILL ONLY BE
AROUND 30 MPH AT BEST...BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

AS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES CAN BE
EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST BEFORE
THE RAIN ENDS. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. NE MS MAY
EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...FROM WALNUT
RIDGE AT 4 PM CST TO THE MS RIVER AROUND 7 PM CST...THEN EXITING
NE MS BY 1 AM CST. THE FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER AIR AS WELL
AS PUSH MOST OF THE RAIN EAST WITH IT. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS COLD AIR IS VERY SHALLOW. LOWS SHOULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S OVER NE AR TO LOWER 40S IN NE MS. PATCHY
FOG/DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...WHICH SOME MAY FREEZE
NORTH OF JONESBORO AR TO KENNETT MO LINE LATE. WILL MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CLOUDY AND COLD DAY. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WHERE DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. AGAIN
WENT BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 36 TO 42 DEGREE RANGE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESSION AND IMPACT OF UPPER LOW MOVING NEAR THE AREA AS THIS
MAY PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
LATEST MODELS DIFFER CONSIDERABLY WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...PARTICULARLY WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR AND MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. REGARDLESS...ALL MODELS NOW HINT THAT A BAND OF RAIN OR
SNOW WILL DEVELOP ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...MAINLY OVER
NORTH MS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IF ENOUGH COOLING
COULD OCCUR...SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR. RIGHT
NOW...JUST INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND KEPT RAIN/SNOW
MIX LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP EACH DAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...LATEST MODELS SUGGEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND
FRONT NEARBY. GFS/ECMWF DIFFER CONSIDERABLY...SO USED A
BLEND...GENERALLY KEEPING LOW RAIN CHANCES AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

MBS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

LIFR CEILINGS OF 400 FEET AGL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS KJBR...KMEM...
AND KMKL BEHIND THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AT KJBR
AROUND 02-03Z..KMEM AND KMKL AROUND 03Z-04Z. MODELS SHOW SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CEILINGS BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS VERY LOW
AND ANY IMPROVEMENTS SHOULD BE BRIEF SO KEPT LIFR CEILINGS THROUGH
AT LEAST 13Z. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 13Z
WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 700 TO 1000 FEET AGL. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DECREASE BACK TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 13Z.

FOR KTUP...SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
04Z SO INCLUDED VCTS. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KTUP
THROUGH 06Z AND THEN LIFR CEILINGS OF 400 FEET AGL SHOULD DEVELOP.
THESE LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY BUT
HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT OPTIMISTIC THAT CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO IFR
CONDITIONS BY 20Z.

KNS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  36  39  33  46 / 100  20  30  30
MKL  35  39  31  44 / 100  20  30  30
JBR  32  37  27  48 /  60  10  10  10
TUP  42  44  35  42 / 100  30  70  70

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
     PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
815 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-102330-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
815 PM CST TUE DEC 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 10 PM
CST...OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE PARKWAY. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH IS THE MAIN HAZARD...
THOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND A TORNADO MAY BE POSSIBLE
AS WELL.

HEAVY RAINFALL OF ONE TO THREE INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MIDNIGHT CST. THIS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING
AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. AT THIS TIME...THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE
EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL
EXIST.

STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING THIS POTENTIAL
WINTER WEATHER SITUATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 7 PM CST SOUTH OF A COFFEEVILLE
TO IUKA MISSISSIPPI LINE.

MBS/PWB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CST TUE DEC 09 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SENATOBIA               34.62N 89.97W
12/09/2008                   TATE               MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            SEVERAL STREETS IN TOWN ARE FLOODED ALONG WITH OTHER
            REPORTS OF FLOODING ON ROADS ACROSS THE COUNTY

&&

JAB