Flash Flood Warning 146, NWS Memphis, TN

000 
WGUS74 KMEG 091928
FFSMEG

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
228 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

MSC095-092015-
/O.CON.KMEG.FF.W.0146.000000T0000Z-080909T2015Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MONROE MS-
228 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM CDT FOR
MONROE COUNTY...

AT 228 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND TRAINED 
WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...STORM SPOTTERS NEAR WREN REPORTED NEARLY 4 
INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS FALLEN.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO NEW WREN AND
AMORY.

.EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
MEMPHIS.

LAT...LON 3402 8871 3409 8822 3409 8821 3375 8825
      3374 8829 3374 8831 3373 8831 3369 8844
      3368 8872

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

.UPDATE...

COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR HUNTINGDON TN TO JUST SOUTH OF
JONESBORO AR THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS BECOMING NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE UPPER FLOW...SO ONLY A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVES IN WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY.
WILL LEAVE THE MENTION OF POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH MS THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESENTLY IS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE
AREA. ADJUSTED THE QPF GRID FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ALRIGHT AND NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008/

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
WESTERN KENTUCKY BACK THROUGH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND THROUGH
CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS. MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES A MID
LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A SHORTWAVE LOCATED ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE WERE PRIMARILY
IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...REGIONAL WSR-88D
TRENDS THIS MORNING INDICATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTH TO THE I-40 CORRIDOR TODAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES AVERAGING AROUND 1400 J/KG...LI/S AROUND
-2 AND WINDS ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR SOME MULTICELL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT THINK ANY POTENTIAL THREAT WOULD BE
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT SOUTH
OF I-40 AND GRADUALLY RETREAT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY AS
HURRICANE IKE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY.

LONG RANGE...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT MANY CHANGES FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON/S FORECAST PACKAGE AS LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES. THE GFS NOW
TAKES HURRICANE IKE INTO MEXICO WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES LANDFALL
BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND GALVESTON...THEN WITH THE REMNANTS
BEING PICKED UP BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND TRANSPORTED INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY SUNDAY/MONDAY. AS A RESULT...LONG
RANGE FORECAST REFLECTS THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY THE ECMWF WHICH
SEEMS TO BE HANDLING IKE BETTER THAN THE GFS OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  82  67  84  71 /  30  30  20  20
MKL  81  62  83  67 /  30  20  20  10
JBR  76  62  82  67 /  20  20  20  10
TUP  84  68  85  70 /  60  30  30  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JCL/CJC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
445 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-101100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
445 AM CDT TUE SEP 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.