Flash Flood Warning 139, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILER TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS LOCATED FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
DECREASED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER WHERE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
MOST PERSISTENT IN PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AXIS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
CONTINUES TO BE THE RAIN CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRACK OF
TROPICAL STORM FAY WHICH HAS GRADUALLY MOVED WEST TODAY NEAR
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. MAIN ADJUSTMENT IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS
ADJUSTMENT TO POPS WITH THE FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM FAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
BUT THINK COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. A COLD FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH SUNDAY WHILE TROPICAL STORM FAY
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN
STALL OUT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE 00Z ECMWF AND
12Z GFS HAVE THE BEST MODEL CONSISTENCY AT THIS TIME AND LEANED
FORECAST TOWARDS THE SOLUTION. THE 12Z ECMWF TAKES THE TROPICAL
STORM REMNANTS A BIT FURTHER EAST THAN MODEL CONSENSUS.
NONETHELESS...THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF I-40
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN
GRADUALLY TAKE THE TROPICAL SYSTEM OUT OF THE MID SOUTH BY THE END
OF THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. &&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-231100-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
351 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH
SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SJM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

ARZ035-230015-
CROSS AR-
645 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHERN CROSS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA SIZE HAIL AND WINDS TO 45 MPH
WINDS WERE LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL CROSS COUNTY.
THESE STORMS WERE NEAR STATIONARY.

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM CDT.