Flash Flood Warning 118, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...

HEAT...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES/CONCERNS.

LATEST MODELS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. VIRTUALLY ALL OF THEM
INITIALIZED TODAY/S CONVECTION OVER THE AREA VERY POORLY.
OVERALL...USED A BLEND OF MODEL DATA.

DID NOT MAKE ANY HUGE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

CANCELLED THE HEAT ADVISORY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 105 DEGREES FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT AND NUMEROUS NEARBY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
TO COOL THE AIR.

AT 345 PM CDT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER NORTH MS WHERE HOT UNSTABLE AIR CLASHED
WITH A MAIN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S CONVECTION OVER
NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL. MOST OF E AR/MO BOOTHEEL WAS MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY. TEMPERATURES VARIED FROM THE MID 70S IN RAIN COOLED AIR
OVER NE MS TO THE MID/UPPER 90S NEAR MEMPHIS TN AND SOUTH OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN TALLAHATCHIE/YALOBUSHA COUNTIES IN MS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...THINK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. TWO POSSIBLE FOCI FOR
LIFT INCLUDE A WEAKENING MCV/SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SE MO AND NE
AR AS WELL AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER NORTH MS. A FEW STORMS
STILL MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WHERE RAIN HAS NOT OCCURRED YET
TODAY...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE MS RIVER AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTH MS. DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH ARE THE
MAIN HAZARD...THOUGH SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. NOT ALL AREAS
WILL GET WET AS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN UNORGANIZED...BUT SOME
AREAS COULD GET A QUICK 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL.

MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM CDT AS
DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. USED A BLEND FOR RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT...
40 TO 50 PERCENT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER THAN MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO COOL/STABILIZE
THE AIR. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE..BUT LEFT MENTION
OUT OF FORECAST AS NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT OCCURRENCE WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH NORTH WINDS DEVELOPING...ESPECIALLY
WITH MORNING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND. KEPT RAIN CHANCES
IN THE 20 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER NE MS.
BELIEVE CLEARING AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MAINLY PREVAIL DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY REDEVELOP
SOUTH OF A FORREST CITY AR TO CORINTH MS WHERE THE AIR WILL BE
MOIST AND MOST UNSTABLE. STRONG STORMS APPEAR LESS LIKELY.
HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90 DEGREES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED...THOUGH KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF A PARAGOULD
AR TO TUPELO MS LINE WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 1.5 INCHES.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
WEATHER EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE MCS
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AREA WILL
BE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE.TOOK THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HOT AND DRY GFS
MODEL AND THE WET AND COOLER ECMWF MODEL. KEPT LOW RAIN CHANCES
EACH DAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  73  91  74  94 /  50  30  20  20
MKL  71  88  67  91 /  50  40  10  10
JBR  71  90  71  94 /  40  20  20  20
TUP  74  89  71  93 /  50  50  20  20

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

MBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-232230-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
328 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...MAINLY
THROUGH 10 PM CDT. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY SEVERE STORM THAT
DEVELOPS IS DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
PENNIES ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES MAY OCCUR IN A FEW
SPOTS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND FORECAST AREA...MAINLY THROUGH
10 PM CDT. THIS MAY CAUSE MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN A FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH
10 PM CDT.

MBS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

MSZ023-222115-
CHICKASAW MS-
339 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  SOUTHERN CHICKASAW COUNTY IN NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF HOUSTON AT 339 PM CDT...MOVING
EAST AT 10 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CHICKASAW COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF HOUSTON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY..

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