Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
219 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

.DISCUSSION...

SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK LIKELY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID SOUTH INCLUDING EASTERN ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A STRONG UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH THE 500 MB SPEED MAX STARTING TO SPREAD NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ARKLATEX. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
ARKANSAS. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 997 MB AND TRACK
NORTHEAST INTO N CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND SE MISSOURI THIS EVENING
WHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS.

THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH
SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S...HIGH TEMP RECORD HAS ALREADY BEEN BROKEN AT
MEMPHIS. AS A RESULT SBCAPES HAVE CLIMBED TO BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500
J/KG ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID SOUTH AND THIS WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BY BACKING THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
SLIGHTLY PRODUCING 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES OVER 300 M2/S2. MEANWHILE
THE 500 MB SPEED MAX SPREADING INTO THE ARKLATEX WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE TOWARD THE MID SOUTH PRODUCING TREMENDOUS VERTICAL SHEAR.

THE 18Z LZK SOUNDING INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUING
TO DEEPEN WITH A WEAKENING AND LIFTING CAP AT 700 MB. MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ABOVE THE CAP ARE VERY STEEP...GREATER THAN 7 C/KM. AS
THE UPPER TROF APPROACHES AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR THE CAP WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE AND THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL INTENSIFY
AND MAY BECOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THESE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES TO DEVELOP WITH THESE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT
FORM IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TH EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION THE DISCRETE CELLS WILL EVENTUAL MERGE INTO A LINE OR
LINE SEGMENTS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR WINDS OF 25
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH OR HIGHER AHEAD OF AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE MID SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS
IN THE 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER TROFS
SWINGS THROUGH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND MAYBE SOME PRECIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION. A STRONGER UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE
EASTERN U.S. DURING THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN SOME COLDER TEMPS AND
DRY WEATHER. GFS AND ECMWF AT ODDS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE TX BIG BEND REGION WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND MOISTURE RETURNING ACROSS THE
REGION. MEANWHILE THIS SYSTEM IS ABSENT FROM THE ECMWF AND AS A
RESULT THE FLOW IS WESTERLY AND DRY. ATTM WILL INTRODUCE LOW END
CHANCE POPS FOR TUE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM  46  48  31  55 / 100  10  10  10
MKL  48  49  27  50 / 100  20  10  10
JBR  42  47  29  51 / 100  10  10  10
TUP  52  54  30  55 / 100  20  10  10

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CARROLL-CHESTER-
     CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
428 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-
MSZ001>017-020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-070030-
ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CHICKASAW-CLAY-COAHOMA-
CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROCKETT-CROSS-DESOTO-DECATUR-DUNKLIN-DYER-
FAYETTE-GIBSON-GREENE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-
ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-LEE MS-MADISON-
MARSHALL-MCNAIRY-MISSISSIPPI-MONROE-OBION-PANOLA-PEMISCOT-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SHELBY-
ST. FRANCIS-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TIPTON-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
UNION-WEAKLEY-YALOBUSHA-
428 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS...
THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AND WEST TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI. AREAS IN THE HIGH RISK ARE GENERALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TENNESSEE TO OXFORD MISSISSIPPI.  A MODERATE
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LINE.

A WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO GENERATE ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS
SOME WHICH WILL BE SEVERE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND TORNADOES. THE
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR STRONG TORNADOES TO DEVELOP. AN
ADDITIONAL LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

THE PRIMARY TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNTIL 10
PM CST FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND UNTIL 2 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 2 AM
CST WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINGING AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE AND THEN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE STRONG COLD FRONT UNTIL MIDNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER CAN BE EXPECTED. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MID SOUTH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS WILL BE REQUIRED THROUGH MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA.

OKULSKI

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
359 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

ARZ036-048-052215-
ST. FRANCIS AR-CRITTENDEN AR-
359 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  CENTRAL CRITTENDEN COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  EASTERN ST. FRANCIS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS WAS LOCATED 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUGHES AT 359 PM CST...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

PEOPLE IN CRITTENDEN AND ST. FRANCIS COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
HUGHES...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 415 PM CST.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

ARZ058-MSZ007-052245-
PHILLIPS AR-TUNICA MS-
432 PM CST TUE FEB 5 2008

...THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR...

  NORTHEASTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EASTERN ARKANSAS...
  SOUTHWESTERN TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING WAS LOCATED OVER HELENA AT 432 PM
CST...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

THIS STORM IS INTENSIFYING AND COULD BECOME SEVERE RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN PHILLIPS AND TUNICA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF
HELENA AND WEST HELENA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. THIS
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CST.

.A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ALERT AREA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             4 E MARVELL             34.56N 90.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   POST OFFICE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN POPLAR GROVE.

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
444 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             4 E MARVELL             34.56N 90.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   POST OFFICE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN POPLAR GROVE.

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
456 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             4 E MARVELL             34.56N 90.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   POST OFFICE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN POPLAR GROVE.

0450 PM     HAIL             3 N BARTLETT            35.26N 89.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION OF PLEASANT RIDGE AND
            AUSTEN PEAY.

&&

MBS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 PM CST TUE FEB 05 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     HAIL             4 E MARVELL             34.56N 90.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       PHILLIPS           AR   POST OFFICE

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN POPLAR GROVE.

0450 PM     HAIL             3 N BARTLETT            35.26N 89.84W
02/05/2008  E0.75 INCH       SHELBY             TN   AMATEUR RADIO

            PENNY SIZE HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION OF PLEASANT RIDGE AND
            AUSTEN PEAY.

0503 PM     TORNADO          ARLINGTON               35.28N 89.66W
02/05/2008                   SHELBY             TN   PUBLIC

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSECTION OF
            HIGHWAY 70 AND HIGHWAY 385.

&&

MBS