Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 132313
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
613 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008

NMC025-140000-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0280.000000T0000Z-081014T0000Z/
LEA NM-
513 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM MDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...

AT 508 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...OR ABOUT 33 MILES NORTH OF MENTONE...
MOVING NORTH AT 23 MPH.

LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...SOUTH 
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY AND CENTRAL LEA COUNTY.

IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS... DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. REMEMBER... IF YOU CAN
HEAR THUNDER... YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK
SAFE SHELTER NOW.

LAT...LON 3248 10370 3249 10331 3202 10343 3202 10370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2313Z 189DEG 20KT 3221 10353

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
207 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NRN CWFA THIS PM WITH 3HR MSLP
RISES WEAKENING BUT STILL SUPPORTING SOME SWD MOMENTUM. SW FLOW
WILL HAVE POSITIVE FEED BACK ON FRONT...AS OVERRUNNING DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF FRONT PRECIP WILL INCREASE WHICH IN TURN WILL COOL AIR
AIDING IN CONTINUED SWD MOVEMENT OF FRONT. DGEX HAD GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS DAYS AGO AND NAM CONTINUES THIS TREND WITH FARTHEST S
POSITION AND COLDEST TEMPS. NAM/GFS 5H HEIGHTS INDICATE MINOR
SHRTWV TROF IN SW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN PRECIP DEVELOPING
ACRS S PLAINS/LOW ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FARTHER S INTO PB OVERNIGHT...BUT HEAVIEST RAIN AND
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL PROBABLY BE N OF CWFA. STILL HAVE OPTED TO
INCREASE POPS TONIGHT/TUE. OVERRUNNING/UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP LOW
CLOUDS ENTRENCHED AND SEE THIS AS OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPROVEMENT OVER
GUIDANCE. 5H LOW WILL START ITS MOVE E LATE TUES AND TROF AXIS
WILL TRAIL SWWD BEING SLOW TO MOVE E OF CWFA AND WILL NEED TO KEEP
POPS UP IN THE FAR W AND MOVE THEM EWD INTO EARLY WED. AS 5H LOW
MOVES E INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS EARLY WED A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD
AIR/RE-ENFORCING HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE S THRU W TX AND WILL
AGAIN TAKE A SHOT AND IMPROVING OVER GUIDANCE BY UNDERCUTTING IT.
LOW CLOUDS WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD IN ESPECIALLY FROM MAF S WHERE
UPSLOPE AND MOIST ADVECTION WITH SE 85H WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
FARTHER NW LEE TROF WILL FORM ACRS NM AS SHRTWV TROF MOVES THRU
COLORADO THUR. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP FRI BUT BE
RATHER SHORT-LIVED MOVING E SAT WITH W-SW MID LEVEL FLOW SUN.
ECMWF/GFS STARTS TO DIVERGE WITH FLOW AMPLIFYING MORESO ON MON
WITH MID LEVEL TROF. NEEDLESS TO SAY WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR
THUR-MON. EVEN THOUGH IT BE WARMING DWPNTS ARE FCST TO REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE 50S SO MORNING LOWS WILL TEND TOWARD THE MILD
SIDE THUR-MON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM PRESIDIO THROUGH
THE BIG BEND REGION. RIVER LEVELS AT PRESIDIO HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
FALLING. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO CALL FOR DECLINE IN
RIVER LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN IN/NEAR MINOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO TO RIO GRANDE VILLAGE
AND GIVEN THE CONTINUED RELEASES FROM LUIS LEON RESERVOIR...THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              58  60  56  66  /  60  50  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                56  56  50  65  /  60  50  40  10
DRYDEN TX                  64  79  62  70  /  30  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  74  57  66  /  50  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  58  47  61  /  50  40  30  10
HOBBS NM                   54  54  50  65  /  70  60  40  10
MARFA TX                   54  73  55  70  /  40  30  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    59  60  57  66  /  60  50  30  20
ODESSA TX                  60  60  57  66  /  60  50  30  20
WINK TX                    61  62  55  68  /  60  40  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
159 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-141130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
159 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2008 /1259 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.

WATER RELEASES FROM LUIS LEON RESERVOIR IN MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM PRESIDIO TO RIO GRANDE
VILLAGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY DUE TO CONTINUED RELEASES FROM LUIS LEON RESERVOIR IN
MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND