Severe Thunderstorm Warning 260, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WEST OF THE TERMINALS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING. WE CURRENTLY DO NOT EXPECT MVFR
CEILINGS TO IMPACT ANY OF THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
SE/S AROUND 10 KNOTS THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND WILL PROBABLY FORM IN THE GUADALUPE MTS SHORTLY AS
WELL. CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THE UPPER
FLOW AND STABILITY ISSUES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS
FORECAST PACKAGE. MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO THE EVOLUTION
OF THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE PATTERNS. THE GFS PULLS FAY WEST
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND ULTIMATELY LEAVES ITS CIRCULATION OVER
EAST TEXAS. THIS CIRCULATION BRINGS MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO THE
AREA NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF BRINGS FAY WEST BUT ONLY TO THE MIDDLE
GULF COAST...THEN LIFTS IT NORTHEAST BUT STILL HOLDS A WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION NEXT WEEK. THIS
SOLUTION IS DRIER THAN THE GFS. I DECIDED TO STAY WITH WHAT THE
TWO HAD IN COMMON AND THAT WAS TO COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN NEXT WEEK
AS THEY BOTH SUGGEST LOWER H85 TEMPS WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION. THIS MAKES SENSE ALSO GIVEN THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE
HOLDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND STRUGGLES TO BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED OVER WEST TEXAS. DID NOT WANT TO GET TOO ENTHUSIASTIC
ABOUT POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME YET...BUT WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE
SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
LAPSE RATES WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211945-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
236 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008 /136 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT PLAINS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AND DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AS PRIMARY THREATS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
RAPIDLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
657 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

TXZ057-210030-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
657 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CULBERSON COUNTY.

AT 657 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM THAT WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF
VAN HORN. THIS STORM IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 6 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN. AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 10 EAST OF VAN HORN WILL BE AFFECTED.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM...MINOR STREET FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG INTERSTATE 10 EAST OF VAN HORN.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION. REMEMBER...IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
746 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

TXZ057-074-080-210115-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
MARFA PLATEAU-
746 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHWESTERN JEFF DAVIS
COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST CULBERSON COUNTY.

AT 745 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGIST WERE
MONITORING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
KENT MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST 7 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.  INDIVIDUALS TRAVELING ALONG INTERSTATE 10
WEST OF KENT AND STATE HIGHWAY 118 SOUTH OF KENT SHOULD USE EXTREME
CAUTION AND MONITOR THE WEATHER CLOSELY.

MINOR FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.  DO NOT ATTEMPT
TO DRIVE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION. REMEMBER...IF
YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY
LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER INDOORS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.