Severe Thunderstorm Warning 169, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
248 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

.UPDATE...
DECIDED TO GO WITH FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO WILL PROMOTE INCREASING SW WINDS AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AS DRYLINE PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...THESE DOWNSLOPING AND DRYING SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AT OR ABOVE 20 MPH RESULTING IN A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
DEWPOINTS. MIN RH/S WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ALONG WITH
VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008/

DISCUSSION...
BREEZY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE CONTINUED WITH INFLUX OF
RELATIVELY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THIS HAS BEEN DEPICTED
BY 12Z SOUNDING WHICH HAD A PWAT VALUE OF 1.32. ALTHOUGH WINDS
BRIEFLY REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA IN A FEW LOCATIONS...THEY HAVE
COME DOWN SOMEWHAT AS EXPECTED. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AS A SURFACE LOW OVER SE COLORADO DEEPENS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES. AS LLJ GETS GOING AFTER SUNSET...WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. DEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD IS JUST NOW
BEGINNING AND SHOULD EXPAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRESSURE FALLS
SHOULD HELP IN THE EASTERLY MOVEMENT OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SE NM BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A TREMENDOUS
SURGE. THEREFORE...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MODEST CAPE
VALUES COULD RESULT IN A FEW STORMS THIS EVENING WHILE OROGRAPHIC
LIFT IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL PROMOTED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAT RIGHT AT SEVERE LIMITS AS INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ARE FAIRLY MILD AT BEST. SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF THE SE UNITED STATES SLOWLY DRIFTS
EASTWARD AND INFLOW OF SFC MOISTURE CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER
DAY.

IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES...INCREASED MOISTURE HAS HELPED TO KEEP
TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
UNTIL POSSIBLY TUES/WED. A FAIRLY BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE COUNTRY AT A MODERATE PACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF AND GFS BRING A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHERN FRINGE DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. WHILE NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT ON A COLD FRONT WITH THAT
MUCH PUSH DURING THE DAY...OUTFLOW FROM MCS PROGGED TO DEVELOP
OVER OK MAKES IT MORE PLAUSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
A SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. INCREASING WEST
WINDS...WARMING TEMPERATURES...AND LOWER RH/S COULD BE SETTING UP
FOR RETURN OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

77/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
307 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-082015-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
307 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008 /207 PM MDT SAT JUN 7 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FAR WEST TEXAS NORTH ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE COMBINATION OF WARM...WINDY...AND DRY CONDITIONS AND VERY HIGH
TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL SUPPORT RAPID FIRE GROWTH AND SPREAD
ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN
EFFECT SUNDAY FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS WARM...
WINDY...AND DRY CONDITIONS INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

70

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 PM CDT SAT JUN 7 2008

NMZ029-033-072315-
CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-
447 PM MDT SAT JUN 7 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTHWESTERN LEA COUNTY.

AT 447 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
MONITORING INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN LEA
COUNTY. ONE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
MALJAMAR. ANOTHER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 5 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CAPROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 55 MPH AND PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN WILL OCCUR. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE...SEVERE WEATHER
MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN LEA COUNTY...INCLUDING THOSE NEAR MALJAMAR
AND CAPROCK...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0631 PM     HAIL             CARLSBAD                32.40N 104.24W
06/07/2008  E0.75 INCH       EDDY               NM   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PENNY SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN CARLSBAD.

&&

CDANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
742 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             PINE SPRINGS            31.89N 104.81W
06/07/2008  E0.88 INCH       CULBERSON          TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZED HAIL AT RANGER STATION IN PINE SPRINGS.

&&

CDANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
830 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 N LOVINGTON           33.06N 103.35W
06/07/2008                   LEA                NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            THREE POWER POLES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 206.

&&

CDANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
833 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW TATUM              33.23N 103.34W
06/07/2008  M58 MPH          LEA                NM   MESONET

            WIND GUST TO 58 MPH AT THE TEXAS TECH MESONET.

&&

CDANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
850 PM CDT SAT JUN 07 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     TSTM WND GST     TATUM                   33.26N 103.32W
06/07/2008  M65 MPH          LEA                NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            65MPH GUST MEASURED BY OBSERVER IN TATUM.

&&

CDANIELS