Severe Thunderstorm Warning 141, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
233 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION A CONCERN AGAIN TODAY THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS HAS
BEEN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. CU SEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE DAVIS MTS
AT THE MOMENT THANKS TO A NICE PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTH OUT OF MEXICO. NAM SHOWS DECENT SHEAR VALUES FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA BUT STABILITY QUICKLY INCREASES EAST
AND TSTMS WILL HAVE TROUBLE SURVIVING LONG OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
PERHAPS THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR INITIATION TODAY WILL BE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN WHERE THE CAP IS WEAK...INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR IS BETTER...AND THERE WILL BE A DRYLINE/FRONT
INTERACTION FOR CONVERGENCE. THE DRYLINE ITSELF IS NOT AS CRISP AS
RECENT DAYS SO DO NOT SEE A LOT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG IT.
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE WILL NEED UPPER SUPPORT TO HELP IT
ALONG WHICH CURRENTLY IS NOT OBVIOUS ON WV IMAGERY THOUGH IT
APPEARS A WEAK S/W MAY BE ABOUT TO ENTER WEST TEXAS FROM MEXICO.

AFTER TODAY...LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ALONG THE
MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHEASTERL LOW LEVEL FLOW KEEPS THE DRYLINE BACKED
UP TO THE WEST. LEFT SLT CHC POPS IN THROUGH THURSDAY BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND
LEAVING US HIGH AND DRY OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS DOWN SO THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH
FIRE WEATHER WORRIES THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE CONTINUING DRY
AIR AT THE SURFACE.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              70  93  68  95  /  30  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  94  64  91  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  70  93  69  92  /  20  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  97  68  96  /  20  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  86  64  87  /  10  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   66  95  66  93  /  20  20  20  10
MARFA TX                   58  90  54  88  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    71  93  66  95  /  30  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  72  94  67  94  /  30  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 100  71 100  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

10

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-281815-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
110 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008 /1210 PM MDT TUE MAY 27 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A
TATUM TO MARFA LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SOME OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY
THREATS.  THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING
GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A SEMINOLE TO FORT DAVIS LINE.  SPOTTERS
AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD STAY INFORMED ON DEVELOPING
WEATHER AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
302 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

TXZ074-272030-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
302 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL BREWSTER COUNTY.

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES EAST OF ALPINE AT
302 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 11 MPH.  THIS STORM IS OVER U.S.90
EAST OF ALPINE.

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM INCREASES...SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
403 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

TXZ075-272145-
PECOS-
403 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY.

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
FORT STOCKTON OVER WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY AT 403 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM INCREASES...SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN WEST CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             LAMESA                  32.73N 101.96W
05/27/2008  E1.75 INCH       DAWSON             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RBARNES