Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
358 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

.UPDATE...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE DRYLINE
FROM NEAR HALFWAY IN LEA COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO PRESIDIO...THE PECOS
AWOS /KPEQ/ REPORTED GUSTS TO 50KT AND LARGE HAIL REPORTED JUST
NORTHWEST OF PECOS OVER THE PAST HOUR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA TO MIDLAND TO
BIG BEND NATIONAL PARK UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM
THREAT THIS EVENING IS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER A
BRIEF TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008/

DISCUSSION...
OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EACH DAY AND EVENING
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A
SURFACE DRYLINE WILL BE COLLOCATED. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
EXIST BETWEEN A RETROGRADING WEST COAST LOW AND A WESTWARD BUILDING
RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER GULF COAST. VERY INTENSE AFTERNOON HEATING
ALONG THE DRYLINE COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK SHORTWAVES
IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND LEA COUNTY NEW MEXICO.
STORMS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE GIVEN FORECAST 0-6 KILOMETER SHEAR VALUES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS
AND SURFACE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG.

A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
WENT WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY DUE TO INSTABILITY ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES
ON WEDNESDAY. BY NEXT THURSDAY A FLAT RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN
PLACE ACROSS MEXICO. MODEL OUTPUT IS MAINLY DRY BUT THINK CONVECTION
NOT OUT OF QUESTION ACROSS PARTICULARLY THE OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS IN VERY INTENSE AFTERNOON
HEATING. LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED  TO MONITOR.

FIRE WEATHER...
WENT AHEAD AND HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR TOMORROW. DRYLINE
SHARPENS UP QUITE A BIT AND MOVES EAST OUT OF NEW MEXICO TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BRINGING VERY LOW HUMIDITIES ONCE AGAIN. THE BIG QUESTION
IS HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE. THEY WILL BE MARGINAL AND WILL
PROBABLY HAVE DIFFICULTY REACHING THE 3 HOUR REQUIREMENT...HOWEVER
IT IS TOO DRY OUT THERE TO RISK THESE MARGINAL CASES AND FEEL IT
DESERVES A WATCH. MID SHIFT CAN LOOK AT THIS AREA ONCE AGAIN AND SEE
IF IT NEEDS AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE
THE STRONGEST WINDS.

ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY EAST OF THE DRYLINE...BUT ABUNDANT
MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE MIN RH IN THE 20S AND 30S. EXPECT VERY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT MOISTURE RECOVERY ALL AREAS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WHERE POOR
TO DECENT MOISTURE RECOVERY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...
     SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-262000-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
250 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008 /150 PM MDT SUN MAY 25 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS
MOST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE ALONG AN ALPINE TO SEMINOLE LINE WITH
LOWER CHANCES ELSEWHERE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE GREATEST THREATS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WITH FLASH FLOODING MORE OF A
CONCERN FOR THOSE AREAS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF HOBBS...KERMIT...TO FORT STOCKTON
LINE. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS.

IN ADDITION...VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO COULD CREATE DANGER FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A LOVINGTON...KENT...TO ALPINE LINE.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

TXZ058-059-067-252000-
LOVING-WARD-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
234 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR CENTRAL REEVES...NORTHWESTERN
WARD AND SOUTHERN LOVING COUNTIES.

A THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF PECOS AT 234 PM CDT...MOVING
NORTH AT 15 MPH.

HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL REEVES...NORTHWESTERN WARD AND SOUTHERN LOVING
COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MENTONE AND PECOS...SHOULD MONITOR
THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT
FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
326 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             8 NW PECOS              31.49N 103.59W
05/25/2008  E0.75 INCH       REEVES             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CDANIELS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     TSTM WND GST     PECOS                   31.41N 103.50W
05/25/2008  M0 MPH           REEVES             TX   ASOS

            PECOS ASOS REPORTED A 50 KNOT WIND GUST.

&&

CDANIELS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
412 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

TXZ080-252145-
MARFA PLATEAU-
412 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR EAST CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY.

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL PRESIDIO COUNTY
AT 412 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 22 MPH.

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM INCREASES...SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY
WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS.

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