River Flood Warning 20, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
819 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FORECAST TO ISSUE A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND REGIONS OF WEST TX.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TERRELL...EASTERN PECOS...AND BREWSTER COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN EMBEDDED SWRLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS...AND
A STALLED OUT LOW-LEVEL FRONT HAVE COMBINED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE WATCH LOCATIONS. FEEL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS H85 LLJ INCREASES TO 25-30
KTS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VLY. WITH DOPPLER RADAR AND UNOFFICIAL
RAINFALL REPORTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES NEAR THE IRAAN AREA...FEEL
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO CONTINUED FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS. WATCH MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW
PENDING OVERNIGHT FORECAST AND PRECIP TRENDS.

&&

32

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 656 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS INUNDATED BY
EXPANSIVE TROPICAL MOISTURE. BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO LIFR CONDITIONS
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES COUPLED WITH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE -RA/RA THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW THE MOST CONCENTRATED
ACTIVITY LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER
TRANS PECOS. EXPECT A TEMPORARY LULL IN ACTIVITY LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND THE SE NEW MEXICO
PLAINS...HOWEVER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN FILLING
IN ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
WILL REMAIN WEAK AND VARIABLE WITH A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO SERLY
WINDS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TOTALLY CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDER THIS EVENING AND AGAIN TOMORROW...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN LOCAL TAFS.

32
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008/

DISCUSSION...
BUSY WEATHER DAY WITH RAINFALL CONTINUING AREAWIDE AND CAUSING
FLOODING PROBLEMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FUTURE RAINFALL AND
FLOODING NEXT WEEK. FIRST THE SHORT TERM WHERE A PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS
PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN CAUSING STEADY RAINFALL ACCUMULATING TO
ONE TO THREE INCHES IN PLACES. IN FACT REPORTS NEAR BAKERSFIELD IN
EXCESS OF 4 INCHES PROMPTED A FLASH FLOOD WARNING AND LATER
REPORTS CONFIRMED ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO THE RAIN. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE INITIAL SURGE OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ENDING THIS EVENING WITH A SECOND BATCH MORE CLOSELY RELATED TO TD
LOWELL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC ARRIVING OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND AREAS WEST
OF THE PECOS RIVER...BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INITIALLY
LIGHT. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING
ANOTHER FOR NOW SINCE IT APPEARS WE HAVE ABOUT A 12 HOUR BREAK IN
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP.

RAINFALL RATES SHOULD INTENSIFY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CWA
TOMORROW AS AN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER WEAK FRONT DIPS INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO ADDING A
SURFACE FOCUS. THE FRONT WILL HANG AROUND INTO FRIDAY AND COMBINED
WITH THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE RAIN CHANCES INTO
FRIDAY. IT APPEARS WE GET A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EASTERN BASIN WITH THE
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM IKE. WILL NOT GET CARRIED AWAY WITH IKE
ASSOCIATED POPS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL DEFINITELY KEEP HIGHER
POPS TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK IN CASE HE SWINGS A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

LIKE GUSTAV...MODELS ARE SHOWING IKE PULLING DOWN COOLER AIR NEXT
WEEK. WENT PRETTY MUCH STRAIGHT WITH THE MEX GUIDANCE DURING THIS
TIME AS IT SEEMS PRETTY REASONABLE GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES. GFS
H85 TEMPS SUGGEST LOWER TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE BUT THEY APPEAR TOO LOW
TO ME. GFS IS ALSO SHOWING DRIER AIR BEING PULLED SOUTH INTO THE
AREA...BUT THE GFS SHOWED THIS INITIALLY WITH GUSTAV AS WELL AND
WOUND UP BACK TRACKING. WILL NOT DRY OUT THE SURFACE AIRMASS AT
THIS TIME WITH ALL THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

HENNIG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              68  81  68  84  /  50  60  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                65  79  62  79  /  80  70  70  60
DRYDEN TX                  70  84  73  89  /  50  50  40  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  83  70  87  /  60  60  60  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  73  56  74  /  90  70  70  60
HOBBS NM                   66  78  67  79  /  80  70  60  60
MARFA TX                   62  77  63  81  /  60  70  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  81  71  85  /  60  60  50  50
ODESSA TX                  68  83  70  85  /  60  60  60  50
WINK TX                    70  87  71  87  /  70  70  60  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... BIG BEND AREA...PECOS...TERRELL.

&&

32/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
815 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-120115-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
815 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008 /715 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF
HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PERMIAN BASIN...THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND WHERE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM CDT. LATE TONIGHT THE
HEAVIEST RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS TO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR
IN CULBERSON COUNTY.

RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM PRESIDIO TO
JOHNSON RANCH THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED OR
RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WATER
RELEASES FROM THE LUIS LEON RESERVOIR AND EXPECTED RAINFALL. MANY
LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

THE REMAINS OF HURRICANE IKE COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL
TO THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCAL INTERESTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND FORECAST.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND