High Wind Watch 33, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1205 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE ACRS TAF SITES AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO
THE EVENING. WEAK FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO MAF AND WINDS WILL VARY SOME
OVER SHORT DISTANCES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ALSO EXPECTED...
ALTHOUGH HAVE LOW PROBABILITY CONCERNS THAT ISOLD HIGH BASED LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRY TSTMS MAY GENERATE LOCAL GUSTY WINDS THRU PEAK SFC
HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WIND THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE DAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO...
BUT BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.  A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WILL ROLL
OVER TOP OF RIDGE BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN HELD UP IN A FEW LOCATIONS AS
WINDS HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED OVERNIGHT. 30 TO 60 DEGREE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A SHARP DROP OFF IF WINDS DROP OFF AT
SUNRISE. MODELS STILL BRINGING WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH EFFECT ACROSS THE
AREA EXCEPT FOR WINDS. SHOULD GET SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER
MUCH OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY BUT THESE WINDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF DAILY RECORDS AND A FEW MAY BE BROKEN. NAM IS CONTINUING
TO BREAK OUT PRECIP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE BEING THE
OUTLIER...FELT IT NECESSARY TO AT LEAST MENTION IT AS THE THREAT
FOR DRY LIGHTNING EXISTS. INCREASING SOUTH AND WESTERLY WINDS IN
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE DOWN THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION. THIS
WILL LEAD TO WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 110 ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS
RIVERS AND NEAR OR ABOVE 100 FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.
FORECASTS THEN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA THATS KEEPING THE AREA WARM THIS WEEK SHIFTS
EASTWARD. UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA
REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
DECREASING THICKNESSES WILL HELP TO BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES MORE
IN LINE WITH NORMALS. AS WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THIS FEATURE
AND OVER THE REGION...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH
THE REGION. ATTM...GOING WITH POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DEVELOPS WILL BE SEVERE AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD BE ON THE
WEAK SIDE BUT A FEW RELATIVELY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 100 DEGREES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  IN ADDITION THE
APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESULT IN INCREASING 20FT WINDS WEDNESDAY.  THEREFORE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY FOR THE VAN HORN
AREA... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS... SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO PLAINS...
UPPER TRANS PECOS AND PERMIAN BASIN.  INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND
CONTINUED HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.
POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST WITH
VERY GOOD RH RECOVERY OVER THE EAST.  FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY
OCCUR AGAIN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...
     SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM CDT /12 PM MDT/ TO 9 PM CDT /8 PM
     MDT/ WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...ANDREWS...BORDEN...
     CRANE...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...
     REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
     UPTON...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
125 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-
GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
125 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2008 /1225 PM MDT TUE MAY 20 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE MAINLY IN AND AROUND
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND
ERRATIC WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH BASED STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AS UNSEASONALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES...SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES...AND
WINDS NEAR 25 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 40 MPH IN THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS COMBINE TO RESULT IN EXTREME FIRE DANGER. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL AREAS NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER
INCLUDING SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS FOR
WEDNESDAY.

HIGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE WITH THE HOT SPELL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND