Flash Flood Warning 90, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2008

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS MAINLY OVER TRANS PECOS THIS MORNING...
OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR.  CONTINUED TEMPO FOR PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING FOR ALL TAFS BUT CNM AND HOB SINCE IN PREVIOUS TAFS...
BUT GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS SOME DOUBTS AS TO ITS DEVELOPMENT.  AFTERNOON
CU SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND PICKING UP OUT OF THE EAST
TO SOUTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2008/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. WILL KEEP FAIR WX ACROSS THE
REGION AS NORTHERN STREAM JET STAYS CLOSE TO CANADIAN BORDER INTO NEXT WEEK.
SO OVERALL EXPECTING CONSISTENT DAY TO DAY WEATHER.  CURRENTLY HAVE CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR A FEW HINTS OF STRATUS ACROSS
BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS.  EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS
MOISTURE INCREASES AND DAYTIME HEATING KICKS IN.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP TODAY BUT DID HAVE A FEW ECHOS OUT
WEST YESTERDAY.  LOOKING AT YESTERDAYS VISIBLE SAT SAW THAT CONVECTION BLEW
UP FROM CANDELARIA TO GDP.  MAV GUIDANCE GIVES MRF 20 POPS TODAY SO WENT
AHEAD AND ADDED ISOLATED POPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS GOOD 700 MB MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW COULD BE ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.  PLAN ON KEEPING REST OF THE FORECAST DRY AS RIDGE REMAINS
ENTRENCHED.

SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST TODAY... COULD CALL IT A
BACK DOOR FRONT BUT NO REAL COOLING WITH IT.  HOWEVER SURFACE WIND
WILL BECOME EASTERLY TODAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY COOLER
WIND.  BY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY LEESIDE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED
AND WIND SHIFTS BACK AROUND TO THE S/SE.  SEE NO COLD FRONTS OUT THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.  GFS DOES HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK FRONT
MAKING IT DOWN INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT THIS IS NOT
DEPICTED IN THE GUIDANCE TEMPS YET.

TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO VARY LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEK AS UPPER PATTERN SHOWS
LITTLE CHANGE.  LOOK FOR HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.  THIS SHOULD BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL.

HYDROLOGY...
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE RIO GRANDE IN PRESIDIO COUNTY REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL ALSO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH TODAY AS FLOODING REMAINS LITTLE CHANGED ON THE RIO
GRANDE FROM NEAR PRESIDIO INTO THE BIG BEND AS RELEASES CONTINUE
FROM LUIS LEON.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      PRESIDIO VALLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
233 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-250745-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
233 AM CDT WED SEP 24 2008 /133 AM MDT WED SEP 24 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AT...AND
DOWNSTREAM OF...PRESIDIO.  WATER RELEASES FROM LUIS LEON RESERVOIR
IN MEXICO HAS CAUSED RIVER LEVELS TO RISE TO MODERATE TO MAJOR
FLOOD STAGES...WITH A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS STILL NEAR RECORD FLOOD
LEVELS.  IN ADDITION... REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE WATER LEVEL ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LEVEE SYSTEM IN PRESIDIO HAS REACHED THE TOP
AND COULD FAIL.  HIGHWAY 170 REMAINS CLOSED...AS DO THE
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE AT PRESIDIO AND OTHER SMALLER ROADS.
MOTORISTS IN THE AREA SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND ARE URGED NOT
TO DRIVE THROUGH WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

FLOODING OF THE RIO GRANDE AT PRESIDIO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
THE RELEASE RATE FROM LUIS LEON HAS SLOWLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE THROUGH THE WEEK AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND