Flash Flood Warning 87, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1251 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2008

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS AREA THIS MORNING.
WITH LIGHT WIND SOME PARTS OF THE AREA COULD COOL TO NEAR DEWPT
BUT DO NOT HAVE FOG MENTIONED IN ANY TAFS.  SOUTHERLY FLOW PICKS
UP DURING THE DAY BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008/

DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

AVIATION...
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THEN INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG FORMING IN THE MORNING...BUT SHOULD
NOT BE DENSE OR LONG LASTING IF IT DOES FORM DUE TO A LACK OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SHORT RANGE MODELS AGREE A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE ABOVE MENTIONED TROUGH...
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY WILL BE
LACKING ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...
INCLUDING THE DAVIS AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS AND HAVE OPTED TO
EXTEND LOW POPS INTO NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY FOR ANY ACTIVITY
THAT IS ABLE TO ROLL EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS RIDGE
EXPANDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEEK...THUS BRINGING
NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT TO WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
OVERALL...THE ABOVE MENTIONED PATTERN FAVORS DRY WEATHER AND THE
INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY ACCOUNTS FOR THIS. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HYDROLOGY...
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM
PRESIDIO THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION. THE LATEST RIVER FORECASTS
CONTINUE TO CALL FOR NEARLY STEADY OR A SLOW DECLINE IN RIVER
LEVELS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER...LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN
IN THE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD CATEGORIES FROM PRESIDIO TO RIO
GRANDE VILLAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
RELEASES FROM LUIS LEON RESERVOIR...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
227 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-231930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
227 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2008 /127 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
IN AND AROUND THE PRESIDIO AREA. A WATER RELEASE FROM LUIS LEON
RESERVOIR IN MEXICO HAS CAUSED RIVER LEVELS TO RISE TO MODERATE
AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES...AND A COUPLE OF LOCATIONS ARE EVEN
EXPERIENCING RECORD FLOODING. THE RELEASE RATE HAS SLOWLY
DECREASED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...BUT RIVER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE FLOOD STAGES THROUGH THE WEEK AT
MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE WATER
LEVEL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LEVEE SYSTEM IN PRESIDIO HAS REACHED
THE TOP AND COULD FAIL AT ANY TIME. HIGHWAY 170 REMAINS CLOSED TO
TRAFFIC AND THERE ARE LIKELY OTHER COUNTY ROADS THAT ARE
IMPASSIBLE. MOTORISTS IN THE AREA SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION AND
ARE URGED NOT TO DRIVE THROUGH WATER COVERED ROADWAYS.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP OVER THE GUADALUPE AND
DAVIS MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND