Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
643 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

.DISCUSSION...
12Z AVIATION FORECAST DETAILS PROVIDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD GENERALLY
BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 15Z.
FEW TO SCATTERED MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL PERSIST TODAY...
BEFORE SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR LATER THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MTNS...
AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE FORECAST
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008/

DISCUSSION...
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY.  HAVE INCLUDED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND IN AND AROUND THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THESE AREAS.  LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PROGGED TO BE TOO
STEEP...BUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO IS PROGGED TO
INFLUENCE THESE AREAS DURING MAX HEATING.  FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVELS MAY
ALSO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND
BULK SHEAR VECTORS 15 TO 20KT...THEREFORE THINK SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED.  WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF GUSTY WINDS IN
THE HWO THOUGH.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN SUNDAY...AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE RATHER SLIM AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY COOLER THAN MOS GUIDANCE OF
LATE...BUT THINK WE MAY START TO SEE READINGS CLOSER TO GUIDANCE AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.  STILL
UNDERCUT MOS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND AS SURFACE RIDGING
JUTTING INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST COULD KEEP READINGS AT SEASONAL
NORMS OR LESS.  THIS IN ADDITION TO MODELS ADVERTISING QUITE A BIT
OF UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
MONTHS...WHICH DID NOT OCCUR MOST OF THE TIME.

HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE BIG BEND REGION. AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...
THE STAGE AT PRESIDIO INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS 26.9 FT. LEVELS
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO BREACHES ON THE
LEVEE IN MEXICO ALONG THE CONCHOS.  ALSO IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT
THE LEVEE HAS BEEN BREACHED SE OF PRESIDIO AND OTHER SECTIONS ARE
SHOWING WEAKNESS.  THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THERE UNTIL 21/00Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      PRESIDIO VALLEY.

&&

21/67

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
505 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-211015-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
505 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2008 /405 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER 45 MPH...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL.

FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER CONTINUES FROM PRESIDIO TO
RIO GRANDE VILLAGE DUE TO WATER RELEASES FROM LUIS LEON RESERVOIR
IN MEXICO. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAIN ABOVE RECORD
FLOOD STAGE...WITH LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHWAY 170 REMAINS CLOSED TO TRAFFIC AND THERE
ARE LIKELY OTHER COUNTY ROADS THAT ARE IMPASSABLE. TRAVELERS IN
THIS AREA ARE ADVISED TO USE CAUTION AND AVOID LOCATIONS WHERE
WATER MAY BE OVER THE ROADWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND