Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
622 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MAINLY CLEAR OR
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR 10 MPH OR
LESS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
NW MID LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE ACRS CWFA WITH TROF AXIS POSITIONED E.
NW MID LEVEL FLOW SEEMS PRETTY DRY AND WILL GENERALLY BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND WITH SFC DWPNTS MAINLY IN THE 40S OVERNIGHT EXPECT
THAT THERE WILL AGAIN BE OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
DIURNAL RANGES NEARING 25 DEGREES. INTO FRI NW MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE AND GFS DEPICTS A FAVORABLE CONVERGENT SE FLOW
INTO E-NE NM FOR SHRA/TSRA. MODEL QPF/S KEEP PRECIP N-NW OF CWFA
BUT 7H-5H LR/S STILL NEAR 7 C/KM. THIS WITH LIMITED SFC MSTR KEEPS
85H BASED LI/S POSITIVE AND WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FCST. MID/HIGH
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN SOME MCLOUDY CONDITIONS THRU MIDNIGHT ACRS
NW. MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL EDGE EWD SAT WHICH WOULD TEND CUT
OFF PRECIP FROM GENERATION SOURCE OF NM MTNS AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH DRY FCST. NAM 85H TEMPS NEAR 22C OVER MAF SAT WHICH YIELDS
TEMPS LOWER TO UPPER 80S FRI/SAT. AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AXIS
OVERHEAD SUN THUS MAINTAINING DRY FCST AND 5H HGHTS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY WILL TREND TEMPS UP SOME. 5H RIDGE AXIS MOVES E SUN WHICH
WILL ALLOW MID LEVEL WINDS TO HAVE MORE OF A WLY COMPONENT WHICH
SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENHANCE LEE TROF SOME AND ASSOCD 85H THERMAL
RIDGE. THESE FEATURES LEE TROF/THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE MORE
PROMINENT MON AS MID LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO INTER MTN W SLOWLY
INCREASING SW MID LEVEL FLOW ACRS SE NM/W TX. GFS A LITTLE MORE
PROGRESSIVE THAN ECMWF BUT IN GENERAL TUE CONDITIONS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO MON BUT WARMER WITH MORE WIND. ASSOCD COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THRU W TX/SE NM LATE WED OR THUR AS AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
TROF MOVES E. PRE/POST FRONTAL PRECIP ISN/T OUT OF THE QUESTION
DEPENDING DEGREE OF MSTR RETURN AND DEPTH OF COLD FRONT.

HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE REMAINS IN MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOOD FROM PRESIDIO
DOWNSTREAM THRU BIG BEND. AS OF LATE MORNING THE STAGE AT PRESIDIO
INTERNATIONAL BRIDGE WAS JUST BELOW 28 FT. LEVELS CONTINUE TO
FLUCTUATE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO BREACHES ON THE LEVEE IN
MEXICO ALONG THE CONCHOS. ALSO IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT THE LEVEE
HAS BEEN BREACHED SE OF PRESIDIO AND OTHER SECTIONS ARE SHOWING
WEAKNESS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... PRESIDIO VALLEY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
127 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-191830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
127 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2008 /1227 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER CONTINUES FROM PRESIDIO TO
JOHNSON RANCH DUE TO WATER RELEASES FROM THE LUIS LEON RESERVOIR
IN NORTHERN MEXICO. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIVER REMAIN AT OR
ABOVE RECORD FLOOD STAGE...WITH LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHWAY
170 REMAINS CLOSED TO THROUGH TRAFFIC AND THERE ARE LIKELY OTHER
COUNTY ROADS THAT ARE IMPASSABLE AS WELL. ALL TRAVELING IN THE
AREA ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION AND AVOID ALL LOCATIONS
WHERE WATER MAY BE OVER THE ROADWAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND