Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 121019
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
519 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

TXC115-317-121030-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0061.000000T0000Z-080912T1030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
DAWSON-MARTIN-
519 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 AM CDT FOR
MARTIN AND DAWSON COUNTIES...

AT 512 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
DETECT HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF MARTIN AND DAWSON COUNTIES.
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3293 10216 3294 10170 3210 10171 3212 10220
      3253 10219

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1228 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.  PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM REMAINS OF
T.S.LOWELL PROVIDING THE MOISTURE FOR ONGOING PRECIPITATION.  WILL SEE
MAINLY MVFR CIGS/VISBYS BUT COULD HAVE A FEW PLACES FLIRT WITH IFR/LIFR
BEFORE MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWS A NEAR N/S ORIENTED COLD FRONT
SITUATED FROM GARDEN CITY KS SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN NM.
CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
PERMIAN BASIN...UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WHICH ALIGNS NICELY WITH AN H85 THETA E AXIS. GFS SHOWS THIS AXIS
NOT MOVING MUCH...AND WITH IT ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR QUITE A BIT OF
TRAINING FROM THESE CELLS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREFORE EXPANDED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THE COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO SEE
PRECIP THROUGH TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED TO EXPAND THE
WATCH EASTWARD OR TRIM IT BACK IN THE SOUTH WHERE PRECIP CHANCES
NOW ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE AS AREAS FURTHER NORTH. ALSO MAY NEED TO
EXTEND THE WATCH FURTHER IN TIME BUT WILL LEAVE THAT FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO DECIDE.

UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW FOR A FEW LOCATIONS...AND
FEAR I DID NOT DO IT ENOUGH WITH THE PROBABLE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP IN THE AREA. WITH THE PROJECTED PATH OF IKE NOW MORE
CERTAIN TO REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA TRIMMED BACK POPS THIS
WEEKEND AND DOUBT WE WILL SEE ANY RAIN NEXT WEEK.

THE DEPARTURE OF IKE WILL BRING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW TO WEST TEXAS
FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE MEX REFLECTS THIS...HOWEVER THE
GFS/ECMWF/NOGAPS ALL SHOW H85 TEMPS WHICH INDICATE HIGH TEMPS WILL
NOT EVEN REACH THE COOLER MEX GUIDANCE. THEREFORE DECIDED TO
GENERALLY UNDERCUT MEX TEMPS MOST ALL NEXT WEEK BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES
AND AS A START. LEFT MIN TEMPS ALONE FOR NOW AS THEY ARE WELL
BELOW NORMAL...HOWEVER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE RIDGING OVER
THE AREA WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE TEMPS MIGHT NEED TO COME
DOWN A BIT FURTHER AS WELL. THIS WOULD MAKE FOR THE COOLEST
WEATHER SINCE THE SPRING AND WOULD BE A WELCOME RESPITE FROM THE
SUMMER HEAT.

HENNIG

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 5 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...
     SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT /5 AM MDT/ EARLY THIS MORNING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...
     DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...GAINES...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS...LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...PECOS...PRESIDIO
     VALLEY...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...TERRELL...
     VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
151 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-121130-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
151 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008 /1251 PM MDT THU SEP 11 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE BEST
CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS THE GUADALUPE
AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS...THE MARFA PLATEAU...BIG BEND...PRESIDIO
VALLEY...TRANS PECOS AND THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

RIVER FLOODING WILL PERSIST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM PRESIDIO TO
JOHNSON RANCH THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY AGGRAVATE THE ONGOING FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FRIDAY.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED OR
RISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF WATER
RELEASES FROM THE LUIS LEON RESERVOIR AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
EXPECTED RAINFALL. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LOCAL INTERESTS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF
THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND FORECAST.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1027 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1023 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW SEMINOLE           32.75N 102.69W
09/11/2008                   GAINES             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLOODING NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF
            SEMINOLE...INCLUDING THE CITY OF SEMINOLE. MULTIPLE
            STRANDED MOTORISTS ALONG STATE HIGHWAY 214 AND US HIGHWAY
            385/62.

&&

CGITRO