Flash Flood Warning 46, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 082308
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

TXC043-377-090045-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0046.000000T0000Z-080909T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BREWSTER-PRESIDIO-
608 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO AND SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTIES...

AT 606 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED 
TO DETECT AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER 
SOUTHWESTERN BREWSTER COUNTY AND SOUTHEASTERN PRESIDIO COUNTY...IN 
ADDITION TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN 
CHIHUAHUA IN MEXICO. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES WILL BE 
POSSIBLE AS THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH... 
RESULTING IN FLASH FLOODING. SINCE FLOWS ON THE RIO GRANDE ARE   
ALREADY HIGH...RUNOFF FROM CREEKS AND TRIBUTARIES WILL LIKELY   
RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING.   


LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TERLINGUA
RANCH LODGE...REDFORD...PRESIDIO...CASA PIEDRA AND BIG BEND RANCH
STATE PARK

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 2925 10380 2927 10383 2927 10386 2934 10404
      2946 10423 2950 10425 2951 10431 2957 10441
      2979 10418 2948 10297 2899 10315

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
154 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR INDICATES SOME DRYING/SUBSIDENCE MOVING IN FROM THE W IN
WAKE OF SHRTWV TROF THAT BROUGHT PRECIP TO THE CWFA THIS MORNING.
EXPECT THAT THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE ACRS THE FAR W THROUGH
S WHERE ATMOS WILL HAVE HAD LONGER TIME TO RECOVERY AND WHERE ITS
NOT AS WORKED OVER...RESPECTIVELY. NAM DID A TERRIBLE JOB OF INITIALIZING
PRECIP THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT IT MAY
BE TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH PRECIP THIS PM...EXCEPT SW-S. MEANWHILE COLD
FRONT TO THE N WILL BE MOVING SWD OVERNIGHT AND PROBABLY NEARING
NRN/CNTRL PB BY 03Z-06Z. COULD BE SOME WAA/OVERRUNNING IN 85H-7H
LAYER FAVORING POST FRONTAL PRECIP TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING. EXPECT
THAT COOLER CONDITIONS IN WAKE OF FRONT WILL DIMINISH INSTABILITY
TUE PM AND ATTP TEND TO FAVOR POPS S OF PECOS RIVER. BY EARLY WED
MORNING 85H WINDS VEER TO THE SE-S AND INCREASE WAA. MEANWHILE ALL
MODELS SUGGEST A MINOR SHRTWV TROF WILL LIFT OUT ACRS THE CWFA
EITHER FROM THE SW OR S AND MORNING SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE SW MID LEVEL WILL PERSIST THRU FRI AND PERIODIC SHRTWV
TROF/S WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO MOVE THRU FLOW SINCE IT WILL HAVE
BEEN ESTABLISHED WRT TIME AND FETCH. ALSO THIS WELL ESTABLISHED SW
FLOW WILL MAINTAIN THE 7H-5H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS...THUS THERE WILL
BE A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WEEK. NOT TOO MUCH OF
A SURPRISE THAT PW/S WILL REMAIN HIGH POSSIBLY NEAR 2 THURSDAY
AND IF THE TIMING WORKS OUT WITH A PASSING SHRTWV TROF HEAVY RAIN
COULD BE PROBLEMATIC. REMNANTS OF LOWELL IN PACIFIC MAY GET
ABSORBED INTO SW MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALSO. OTHERWISE MID LEVEL
THETA-E RIDGE WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD FRI BUT WILL BE PUSHING E AS
SW 5H FLOW INCREASES. WILL TEND TO KEEP POPS GOING BUT BEGIN TO
LOSE CONFIDENCE IN SCENARIO. MODELS ADVERTISE FRONT MOVING S SAT
PM SO IT MAY PROVIDE FOCUS. ANOTHER FACTOR WILL BE IKE/S LOCATION.
SUNDAY/MONDAY LOW LEVELS LOOKS TO BE STABLE...BUT 5H PATTERN SEEMS
CONFUSED AND WILL MAKE LITTLE CHANGE ATTP.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RIO GRANDE CONTINUES TO RUN HIGH FROM PRESIDIO DOWNSTREAM
DUE TO RELEASES FROM LUIS LEON RESERVOIR IN NRN MEXICO. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALONG HIGHWAY
170 E-SE OF PRESIDIO THE RIO GRANDE HAS BECOME HIGH ENUF SUCH THAT
SOME OF THE TRIBUTARIES (IE ALAMITO CREEK) HAVE BEGUN TO BACK UP
RESULTING IN FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 170 WHICH IS CLOSED FROM SE OF
PRESIDIO TO NEAR LAJITAS. IF HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPS ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FLOODING CONCERNS WILL INCREASE
FURTHER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              66  76  64  79  /  50  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                63  79  63  85  /  40  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  68  83  69  86  /  40  50  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  79  67  85  /  40  50  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  73  59  77  /  30  40  30  20
HOBBS NM                   62  79  62  84  /  40  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   58  73  59  77  /  40  50  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    66  77  66  85  /  40  30  40  20
ODESSA TX                  66  78  66  84  /  40  40  40  20
WINK TX                    66  82  67  88  /  40  40  40  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
148 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-091100-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
148 PM CDT MON SEP 8 2008 /1248 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE CONTINUE TO RISE MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RELEASES OUT OF LUIS LEON RESERVOIR ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING
EXPECTED. USE EXTREME CAUTION NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHILE RIVER
LEVELS ARE HIGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. INDICATIONS ARE
THAT THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY THIS WEEK FOR THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL.

RIVER LEVELS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ELEVATED
OR RISE THROUGH THE WEEK DUE TO WATER RELEASES FROM THE LUIS
LEON RESERVOIR. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH MINOR TO MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. USE
EXTREME CAUTION NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHILE RIVER LEVELS ARE HIGH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND