Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 190232
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
932 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

TXC243-190445-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0040.000000T0000Z-080819T0445Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
JEFF DAVIS-
932 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR
EASTERN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...

AT 921 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO 
DETECT A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA. 
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED INDICATE THAT AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES HAS 
FALLEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPECIFIC ROADWAYS IMPACTED BY 
THIS FLOODING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO HIGHWAY 
3078...INTERSTATE 10 BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE 20 JUNCTION AND 
SARAGOSA...AND HIGHWAY 17. CHERRY CREEK...CANYON CREEK...AND THE 
TOYAH CREEK WATERSHEDS WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY THIS HEAVY RAINFALL. 

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE... AND MANY OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS NEVER SAFE TO DRIVE ON FLOODED
ROADS. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER TO QUICKLY
CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3090 10449 3110 10411 3075 10358 3049 10386

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
644 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THIS EVENING WITH LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATING DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG ON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LEADING TO SOME IFR
CEILINGS AND FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND
FAR EASTERN STRETCHES OF THE SE NEW MEXICO PLAINS. WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...FURTHER SUPPORTING POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS. FURTHER TO
THE WEST...HIGH END MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE ACROSS
THE TRANS PECOS AND GUADELOUPE MOUNTAIN REGION OF SE NEW MEXICO AS
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN EAST. CONVECTION WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW HOWEVER FEEL
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF TAF SITS AS
A SURFACE TROUGH/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTH WITH TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008/

UPDATE...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON...DRAGGING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR IN BEHIND
IT.  SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS SO FAR
CONFINED TO THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS WITH SOME
ISOLATED ACTIVITY OUTSIDE THE MIDLAND FORECAST AREA IN SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE SOME AFTERNOON HEATING HAS LEAD TO SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THAT AREA.  IN ADDITION...MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA/TEXAS BORDER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WHILE
THIS IS A LIKELY SCENARIO...SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERED ENOUGH
TO PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF ANY ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AT THIS
TIME...AND WILL LET CURRENT WATCH EXPIRE AT 4PM CDT TODAY.

CONTINUE TO EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO
TOMORROW AND HAVE CONTINUED POPS WITH HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PERMIAN BASIN...TRENDING DOWNWARD AS YOU MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST...ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS IS ALMOST
A GIVEN...WITH THE NATURE BEING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A PROBLEM WITH PWATS BETWEEN AN INCH
AND AN INCH AND A HALF...SO CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AND AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

ALSO EXPECT WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EVEN
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE AREA
FROM THE WEST.  FEEL THAT SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW SOME
HEATING...AT LEAST MORE SO THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS.  SO CONTINUED
TO INCREASE THE TEMPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  BY THE END
OF THE WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE.  /13/

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
113 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-191815-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
113 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008 /1213 PM MDT MON AUG 18 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH
OF WEST TEXAS TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING THESE
STORMS MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS...AS WELL AS URBAN AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PERMIAN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
ACROSS THE AREA...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
446 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

TXZ057-074-080-182245-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
MARFA PLATEAU-
446 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF PLATEAU AT
446 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CULBERSON
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH... SMALL HAIL... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY CREATE FLOODING
CONDITIONS ACROSS FAVORED LOCATIONS.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

TXZ057-058-258-182230-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
458 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTY.

A THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 55 MPH...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN
WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTY AT 458 PM CDT/358 PM
MDT/...MOVING SOUTH AT 23 MPH.

THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN RURAL AREAS.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
511 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

TXZ074-080-182245-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-MARFA PLATEAU-
511 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF MCDONALD
OBSERVATORY AT 511 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 23 MPH.

GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH... HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
ARE POSSIBLE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
730 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

TXZ057-190100-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-
730 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CULBERSON COUNTY.

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF PLATEAU
AT 730 PM CDT...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM INCREASES...SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN CULBERSON COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH... HAIL... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
755 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

TXZ057-074-080-190130-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-
MARFA PLATEAU-
755 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND
SOUTH CENTRAL CULBERSON COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER BORACHO AT 755 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTH AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTH CENTRAL JEFF DAVIS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CULBERSON
COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH... HAIL... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO PRODUCE FLOODING CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AFFECTED AREA.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

TXZ074-080-190215-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-MARFA PLATEAU-
834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR JEFF DAVIS COUNTY.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
FORT DAVIS TO 29 MILES NORTHWEST OF FORT DAVIS AT 834 PM CDT...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN JEFF DAVIS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF FORT DAVIS...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

GUSTY WINDS TO 45 MPH... HAIL... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE.
ADDITIONALLY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ON TOP OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN RECEIVED TODAY. WITH THIS ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR RATHER QUICKLY.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

32