Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERIODICALLY AFFECT FORT STOCKTON...PECOS AND
CARLSBAD THIS MORNING...WITH MORE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES AT THE OTHER
TAF SITES. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO DIP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY AT
FORT STOCKTON AND PECOS WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...IF NOT
THUNDERSTORMS.  CLOUD BASES SHOULD LIFT TO THE VFR CATEGORY BY
LATE MORNING...IF NOT EARLY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE.  MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER TODAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE EAST.
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20KT AT MOST TAF
SITES BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 10KT OR LESS
THIS EVENING. MVFR...IF NOT IFR...CEILINGS WILL FILL IN AT MOST
TAF SITES TONIGHT.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM WILL BE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.
BASED ON CURRENT WIND DIRECTION OF RAWS SITES DOWN SOUTH AND
LATEST EWX 0.5 RADAR LOOP...THE CENTER OF THE SFC LOW IS JUST NOW
MOVING INTO THE BIG BEND REGION IN SOUTHERN BREWSTER COUNTY.  PRECIP
BEGAN MOVING INTO TERRELL COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND AS CONTINUED
TO SPREAD NORTH AND WESTWARD OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.  LOOKING AT
IR IMAGERY...A LARGE BURST OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS(-75C) HAS BECOME
EVIDENT ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  A 700MB SPEED MAX
CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY RESULTED IN THIS ENHANCEMENT.
RAINFALL RATES OF OVER ONE HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN TO OCCUR.  ALTHOUGH LATEST IR IMAGES HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT
CLOUD TOP WARMING... EXPANSION OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO TAKE
PLACE AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST.  INITIALIZATION BY NAM12 AND ECMWF
ON THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY ARE CLOSEST TO ACTUAL AND BOTH CONTINUE
THE SYSTEM ON A WNW TRACK ALONG THE SW FRINGE OF THE CWA.  ABUNDANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA.  WITH 00Z SOUNDING AT
DEL RIO INDICATING WELL OVER 2 INCHES OF PWAT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW INTO THE REGION...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE
SUBSTANTIAL ALONG SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY. DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL CONTINUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY.

MADE A FEW CHANGES IN THE POP FORECAST FOR TODAY. FIRST...
INCREASED POPS FROM THE BBNP THROUGH THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AND
TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY.  RELIED HEAVIEST ON ECMWF
PRECIP OUTPUT FOR THIS AS IT HAS DONE QUITE WELL LATELY ON THE
CORE OF THE SYSTEM.  SECONDLY...EXTENDED LOWER END POPS FARTHER
NORTHWARD INTO PERMIAN BASIN AND SE NEW MEXICO.  LOOKING BACK AT
YESTERDAYS PRECIP...OUTER BANDS EXTENDING OUT TO NEAR 200 NM FROM
THE CENTER OF THE LOW BECAME ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN CONJUNCTURE WITH
DIABATIC HEATING AND THUS EXPECTING SIMILAR RESULTS TODAY.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL SHOULD KEEP TEMPS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY TODAY.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN TURN MORE NWWD AS THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS BREAKS DOWN.
RAINFALL SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS ALL BUT WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS POSITION OVER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTHWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE.  KEPT SLGT CHANCE IN EXTREME WESTERN AREAS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS BUT NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT ANY OF THE CWA WILL SEE
THIS ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND RAPIDLY BEGINNING SUNDAY. INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 100S ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA BY MID WEEK.  POP FORECAST ON THE SLIM SIDE THROUGH
THE WEEK AS MODEL CONSISTENCY DECREASES.  MODELS NOT DOING WELL ON
DECIDING THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE RIDGE LATER INTO THE
WEEK.

MEFFER

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      BIG BEND AREA...DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA...MARFA
     PLATEAU...PECOS...PRESIDIO VALLEY...TERRELL.

&&

67/77

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
323 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-260830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
323 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008 /223 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLY FLASH FLOODING WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A PRESIDIO...DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND FORT STOCKTON LINE.  THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.  FLOODING COULD ALSO OCCUR ON THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER FROM CANDELARIA DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE BIG BEND
REGION AND TO THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE PECOS RIVER DUE TO RUNOFF.

THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
WILL BE FROM THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...SOUTH THROUGH THE PRESIDIO
VALLEY. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR
BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION ENDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND