Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 130707
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
207 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008

TXC495-130830-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-080713T0830Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
WINKLER-
207 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 AM CDT FOR
WINKLER COUNTY...

AT 154 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR HAD INDICATED
RAINFALL DECREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS THE COUNTY...HOWEVER FLASH 
FLOODING IS LIKELY CONTINUING ACROSS RURAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY. 
RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS INDICATE THAT UP TO 3 INCHES
HAVE FALLEN ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF TEXAS STATE HIGHWAY 
302. USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING AS MANY ROADS MAY STILL BE UNDER 
WATER.  

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO THE WINKLER
COUNTY SANDHILLS AND KERMIT

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE... AND MANY OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS NEVER SAFE TO DRIVE ON FLOODED
ROADS. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER TO QUICKLY
CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS... AND LOW LYING FARMLAND IS LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

LAT...LON 3199 10333 3200 10280 3166 10281 3167 10334

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2008

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA WITH FST AS THE
ONLY LOCATION LEFT TO HAVE A WIND SHIFT WHICH IS EXPECTED VERY
SHORTLY. A LINE OF SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT
MOST TERMINALS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT LEAST
A FEW MORE HOURS. FST AND HOB LOOK TO STAY IN THE CLEAR THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. VIS HAVE GENERALLY DROP TO LESS THAN 2SM AS
STORMS PASS DIRECTLY OVER SITES. THUS...INTERMITTENT IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BUT VFR WILL BE DOMINANT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY BUT SHOULDN/T
GUST MUCH HIGHER THAN 20 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TONIGHT
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008/

DISCUSSION...
A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD
PUSH INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE
SLOWING DOWN AND BECOMING ORIENTED FROM THE DAVIS MTNS/MARFA PLATEAU
TO THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN TONIGHT. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
IN DEVELOPING A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN WILL AFFECT THE GUADALUPE MTNS...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS
AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN. HAVE GONE FOR 50-60 PCT COVERAGE
ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS...TAPERED TO LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AND THE BIG BEND REGION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS/LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH FLOODING CONCERNS HIGHEST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE GUADALUPE MTNS WHERE HEAVY RAINS FELL A
FEW DAYS AGO.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TX SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE NORTH AND EAST AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BOTH DAYS. WILL CONTINUE A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. CLOUD COVER AND AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA SUNDAY. A WARMING
TREND SHOULD OCCUR MONDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE NEW GFS MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO SHOW
ABUNDANT MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-131930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
219 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008 /119 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS. THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP
SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN AND WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REST OF THIS WEEKEND ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE AREA.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN PERMIAN BASIN AND THE
DAVIS MOUNTAINS REGION. THIS COULD LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED REGIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

TXZ075-130015-
PECOS-
647 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY.

AN INTENSIFYING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT STOCKTON AT 645
PM CDT...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

AS THIS THUNDERSTORM INCREASES...SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL PECOS COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF FORT
STOCKTON...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SEEK SHELTER IF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
823 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

TXZ061-130200-
ECTOR-
823 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ECTOR COUNTY.

AT 823 PM CDT...A THUNDERSTORM WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WAS
LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL ECTOR COUNTY...BETWEEN NOTREES AND
GOLDSMITH...MOVING NORTH AT 17 MPH.

PEA TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL AND WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.

GUSTY WINDS... SMALL HAIL... HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE.  SEEK SAFE SHELTER WHEN THUNDERSTORMS APPROACH.