Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 100736
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

NMC015-100945-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-080710T0945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EDDY-
136 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM MDT FOR
CENTRAL EDDY COUNTY...

AT 102 AM MDT...A TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED A FOOT OF 
WATER RUNNING OVER HIGHWAY 401...12 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF 
LAKEWOOD. AT 105 AM MDT...ANOTHER TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTED
SEVERAL STREETS IN DOWNTOWN CARLSBAD WITH A HALF FOOT OF WATER 
RUNNING OVER THEM.  AT 115 AM MDT...A SPOTTER REPORTED 2 FEET OF
WATER RUNNING OVER COUNTY ROAD 206 AT THE THE INTERSECTION WITH 
US HIGHWAY 82...ABOUT 11 MILES EAST OF ARTESIA. 

AT 131 AM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH 
AT 20 MPH OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN EDDY COUNTY. 
SINCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES COULD OCCUR...
MORE FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.  

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SEVEN
RIVERS...LOCO HILLS...LAKEWOOD...DAYTON...CARLSBAD NORTH AND 
AVALON.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

LAT...LON 3294 10430 3293 10382 3254 10384 3208 10421
      3203 10445 3206 10472

$$

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 100941
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
441 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

NMC015-100947-
/O.EXP.KMAF.FF.W.0023.000000T0000Z-080710T0945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
EDDY-
341 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 345 AM MDT FOR CENTRAL EDDY
COUNTY...

ALTHOUGH THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AND SIGNIFICANT 
FLOODING HAS PASSED FOR CARLSBAD...AVALON...WHITES CITY AND OTIS 
EARLY THIS MORNING...PONDING OF WATER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON SOME 
ROADWAYS.  MOTORISTS SHOULD REMAIN CAUTIOUS AND BE PREPARED TO SLOW 
DOWN IF WATER IS ENCOUNTERED TO PREVENT HYDROPLANING AND LOSS OF 
VEHICLE CONTROL.

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE...AND MANY OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS.  IT IS NEVER SAFE TO DRIVE ON FLOODED
ROADS.  IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER TO QUICKLY
CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE.  TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3294 10430 3293 10382 3254 10384 3208 10421
      3203 10445 3206 10472

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 AM CDT THU JUL 10 2008

.AVIATION...
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS THE KCNM TERMINAL. TSRA/SHRA
CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH
ONLY 20 PERCENT CHANCES ACROSS KCNM AND KHOB DURING THE DAY. WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE STILL OVER THE AREA...EXPECT LOWERED CIGS NEAR
020-030 NEAR 12Z FOR MOST SITES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 15KT GUSTING TO
NEAR 25KT.  /13/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 206 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP ACRS ERN NM PLAINS IN ASSOCN WITH MID
LEVEL SHEAR/THETA-E RIDGE AXIS/SFC BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
ORIENTED SW-NE ACRS ERN NM PLAINS AND WITH LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE
EXPECTED INVOF BOUNDARY EXPECT THAT THIS WILL REMAIN FAVORED AREA
OF PRECIP. MSTR LEVEL REMAIN HIGH WITH PW/S OVER 1.25 INCHES AND
WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
CONCERN. GOOD PART OF GDP MTNS/EDDY COUNTY PLAINS GOT SOAKED
OVERNIGHT AND WILL EXTEND AREA OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE GDP
MTNS. MODEL QPF INDICATES HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE FAVORED A LITTLE
NW OF SE NM PLAINS AND TEND TO AGREE...BUT SE PLAINS STILL WORTH
HIGH END CHC CATEGORY POPS. FARTHER E LOWER THETA-E AIR IS
ADVECTING IN FROM THE E AND WILL HAVE QUICK DECREASE IN POPS FROM
NW TO SE. MID LEVEL HGHTS WILL BUILD NWWD THUR WHICH WILL HOLD
LOWER THETA-E AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASED TEMPS. WILL DECREASE POPS
ACRS SE NM/GDP MTNS THUR AS WELL. SIMILAR SITUATION ON FRI
WARMER/DRIER CNTRL PB AND E-S. STILL ENUF MSTR TO HOLD ISOLD POPS
ACRS SW-W. SAT/SUN FULLY DEVELOPED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BE VERY
NEAR IF NOT WITHIN CWFA AND WILL DECREASE AREA OF ISOLD POPS FURTHER
TO FAR W-NW AND REMOVE ALL POPS MON-WED. GFS HINTS AT NW FLOW
DEVELOPING MON-WED ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WOULD WARRANT
MENTION OF POPS.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM MDT THURSDAY
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

&&

13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
227 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-101930-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
227 PM CDT WED JUL 9 2008 /127 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND INTO THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL QUICKLY RUN OFF SATURATED GROUND
RESULTING IN THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING IN
THOSE AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AS WELL
AS THE ADJACENT PLAINS IN EDDY COUNTY. ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

05