Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
331 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...
00Z SUNDAY NAM AND ECMWF HAS DEPICTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BETTER
THAN THE GFS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN
AND CONCHO VALLEY. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER AROUND WEST TEXAS
AND ALONG WITH A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS OF
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES AND A STALLED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL GO
LIKELY POPS TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE PERMIAN BASIN
AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS REGION AND WILL MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY
SHRINK AGAIN WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK REASONABLE.

ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE NOT MOVED
APPRECIABLY AND AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
IF POPS AND QPF SHOULD BE EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECASTED.

THE FORECAST CHALLENGE BEYOND TUESDAY IS THE EXTENT OF UPPER
LEVEL WEAKNESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF BASICALLY
KEEPS THE UPPER LOW TRAPPED OVER THE AREA GENERATING DECENT RAINS
WHILE THE GFS BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE AGAIN WHILE ROTATING SOME
DISTURBANCES SOUTHWARD IN THE FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS
PATTERN FAVORS AT LEAST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINOUS WESTERN AREAS. HIGHER
POPS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH WILL NEED TO BE ADDED IF IT LOOKS LIKE
THE ECMWF SCENARIO WILL ENFOLD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH BELOW NORMAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              86  62  90  67  /  60  20  20  10
CARLSBAD NM                84  65  88  66  /  60  30  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  95  68  93  69  /  30  30  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  65  88  68  /  60  30  30  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  57  80  62  /  60  40  30  20
HOBBS NM                   85  62  85  66  /  60  30  20  20
MARFA TX                   83  55  81  56  /  50  30  40  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  64  90  67  /  60  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  88  64  90  68  /  60  30  20  10
WINK TX                    90  68  96  71  /  60  30  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
542 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-301045-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
542 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008 /442 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT.  THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL
BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.  THOSE AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL SATURDAY WILL BE MORE AT DANGER OF FLASH
FLOODING TODAY.  AREA RESIDENTS SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF
FLOODING OCCURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AGAIN
MONDAY... MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A VAN HORN TO FORT STOCKTON LINE.
RAIN CHANCES AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL DECREASE THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND