Flash Flood Warning 101, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 141402
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
902 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

TXC135-141545-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0101.000000T0000Z-081014T1545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ECTOR-
902 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 AM CDT FOR
EASTERN ECTOR COUNTY...

AT 850 AM CDT...THE MEDIA IN THE CITY OF ODESSA REPORTED A HIGH
WATER RESCUE AT 11TH STREET AND ADAMS. AT 855 AM CDT DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED THAT THE RAINFALL HAD DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY
SINCE 8 AM IN ECTOR COUNTY...HOWEVER FLASH FLOODING IS STILL
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ODESSA...
NORTH COWDEN AND GARDENDALE

MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE... AND MANY OCCUR WHEN MOTORISTS
DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADWAYS. IT IS NEVER SAFE TO DRIVE ON FLOODED
ROADS. IT TAKES ONLY A FEW INCHES OF RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER TO QUICKLY
CARRY AWAY YOUR VEHICLE. TURN AROUND... DONT DROWN.

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS... AND LOW LYING FARMLAND IS LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

LAT...LON 3207 10261 3208 10229 3168 10231 3165 10262

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESSION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN INTENSITY...COVERAGE IS
BEGINNING TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. LOW CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AN HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUP IN ALL TAFS.
MVFR TO POSSIBLY VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...
ESPECIALLY IF A STRONGER STORM PASSES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY NORTH WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008/

DISCUSSION...
A POSITIVE TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PERMIAN
BASIN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY ALONG A COLORADO
CITY TO ALPINE LINE BY MIDDAY.

WITH COOL AIR ADVECTION AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ALONG AND NORTH
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NEARLY ISOTHERMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE MID-50S TO AROUND 60F ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS TODAY WHILE WARMER
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-70S TO NEAR 80F CAN BE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND AREAS
TODAY. IN ADDITION...ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT AND PROLONGED
OVERRUNNING ALONG/NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRANSLATE
INTO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE TODAY
AND TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER POPS AND QPF EXCEEDING ONE-HALF INCH
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO PLAINS WHERE LARGER SCALE ASCENT AND WEAK INSTABILITY ARE
MAXIMIZED.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD...THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL PROCEED TO DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO/ACROSS THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND AREA ON WEDNESDAY.  ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY OF COOL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE...WITH READINGS
STRUGGLING TO REACH THE MID-60S DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
RETURN ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP OVER THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING REBUILDS INTO WEST TEXAS. MINIMAL CHANCES
FOR RAIN ARE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS AND BIG BEND AREAS ON
THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF THE WEAKENED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HYDROLOGY...
RIVER LEVELS NEAR PRESIDIO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL AS WATER RELEASES
OUT OF MEXICO HAVE DECREASED.  MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES FROM
PRESIDIO TO RIO GRANDE VILLAGE AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER VALLEY REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      PRESIDIO VALLEY.

&&

99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
327 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-150830-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
327 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2008 /227 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS WEST
TEXAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERMIAN
BASIN AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

ALTHOUGH WATER RELEASES FROM LUIS LEON RESERVOIR IN MEXICO HAVE
DECREASED...FLOODING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE FROM PRESIDIO TO RIO
GRANDE VILLAGE CONTINUES. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FLOODING MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY DUE TO AREAL
RAINFALL AND CONTINUED RELEASES FROM LUIS LEON RESERVOIR IN
MEXICO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND