Wind Advisory 1, NWS Little Rock, AR

Arkansas County, AR, Baxter County, AR, Bradley County, AR, Calhoun County, AR, Clark County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Cleveland County, AR, Conway County, AR, Dallas County, AR, Desha County, AR, Drew County, AR, Faulkner County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Garland County, AR, Grant County, AR, Hot Spring County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Marion County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Ouachita County, AR, Perry County, AR, Pike County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Pulaski County, AR, Saline County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, White County, AR, Woodruff County, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
531 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

.AVIATION...
STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FELT AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. IT WILL EXIT THE STATE
BY 00Z WED. EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CEILING WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR IN AREAS
OF FOG AND PRECIPITATION. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR ANY GIVEN AREA. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS TO PERSIST UNTIL DARK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CONVECTION TODAY & ISOLATED
SEVERE THREAT...THEN THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY TO FRIDAY
MORNING...WITH CONVECTION & WINTER PRECIP POTENTIAL.

SURGE OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA HAS BROUGHT DEW POINTS TO THE MID
& UPPER 50S WEST...TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S EAST. PRECIP WATER
VALUES HAVE REACHED AROUND 1 INCH AT BOTH KLZK & KSGF. PLUME OF
MOISTURE ALSO DEPICTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGE TO SW OF ARKANSAS TO
EASTERN PACIFIC. LOW LEVEL JET WELL DEFINED AROUND 50-60 KNTS AT
KSGF...WHILE 40-50 KNOTS AT KLZK. BOTH SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING THE
WELL DEFINED INVERSION 2K- 8K FT. AREA 88D RADARS SHOWING MAINLY
ELEVATED LIGHT PRECIP & ONLY LIGHT RAIN HAS BEEN REACHING THE
GROUND SO FAR. THE UPPER TROUGH WAS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS...&
THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER OK & TX PANHANDLES.
QUITE MILD MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
STATE.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
FIRST...AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THE PRESSURE GRADIENT & LOW LEVEL JET
WILL KEEP SURFACE WINDS ELEVATED...& A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO MIDNIGHT TODAY. PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ALSO
BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES IN & LOWERS
SPEEDS.

MAIN SURGE OF DYNAMIC LIFT...INSTABILITY FROM 12Z TO 20Z
TODAY...& WITH EXPECTED LOW LEVEL JET & UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE...SPC HAS PUT CENTRAL TO EASTERN AR IN SLIGHT RISK.
HAVE ADDED THIS TO FORECAST TO LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON OVER
EAST-CENTRAL TO EASTERN AREAS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SPEED OF THE UPPER DYNAMICS TAKES THE SURGE
QUICKLY TO EASTERN AR TO MS & TN BY 00Z. SEVERE THREAT PULLS EAST
WITH THE DYNAMICS. COLD FRONT WILL LAG UPPER SYSTEM...& NOT PUSH
ACROSS AR UNTIL 00Z TO 04Z. SOME SMALL CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIP OVER
FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF AR...BUT AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT OUT DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY. WEDNESDAY IS JUST A TRANSITION DAY BEFORE THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THURSDAYS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MORE
PROBLEMATIC WITH ITS POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION & WINTRY PRECIP.
SURFACE LOW & UPPER LOW KEY TO FORECAST. AT THIS TIME...MODELS ARE
TAKING THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF AR...KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH...WHILE BRINGING IN A GREATER CHANCE OF WINTER PRECIP DUE TO
COLD AIR. THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AR.
THIS WOULD BRING FREEZING LEVELS DOWN...& AS WE SAW WITH OUR
PREVIOUS SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ON DEC 26TH 2007...THIS WAS THE
KEY OVER THE OZARKS. ELEVATIONS 1K FT & HIGHER SAW SNOW...WHILE
RAIN BELOW. THE SNOW THREAT WOULD BE GREATEST OVER THE NW-N
ARKANSAS FROM LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY MORNING...BE FOR THE LOW
PUSHES EAST & TAKES THE DEFORMATIONS ZONE EAST. CURRENT HPC
GUIDANCE HAS AROUND ONE INCH OVER NORTHERN AR...& OUR FORECAST
TRENDS THIS WAY. UNCERTAINTY DOES EXIST WITH THIS FORECAST & LATER
MODEL RUNS WILL FINE TUNE LOCATION & AMOUNT.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THIS PERIOD WILL START DRY WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROF TO OUR WEST.
THEN MOISTURE WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AS A RATHER
LARGE SURFACE LOW WINDS UP OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL
SLIDE EAST ALONG THE NORTHERN STATES WHILE DRAWING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
INTO ITS CIRCULATION FROM THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
WESTWARD ALONG SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN STATES. WITH THE LOW
SO FAR NORTH...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND STRETCHING MORE
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR OUR
FORECAST AREA RATHER SLOWLY...PROLONGING THE PERIOD OF SHOWERS
EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. I DID
MENTION SOME STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY ON ACCOUNT OF
THE FRONTAL LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM NEAR NORMAL AT THE
START TO ABOVE NORMAL ON DAY 7.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  24  46  29 /  60  60  10  10
CAMDEN AR         69  31  52  36 /  60  60  10  20
HARRISON AR       60  18  45  31 /  40  40  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  28  52  34 /  60  60  10  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  29  50  33 /  60  60  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     69  32  52  35 /  70  70  10  20
MOUNT IDA AR      64  26  53  34 /  50  50  10  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  63  18  45  30 /  40  40  10  10
NEWPORT AR        67  27  46  30 /  60  60  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     68  32  52  35 /  70  70  10  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   64  21  49  32 /  50  50  10  20
SEARCY AR         67  26  47  31 /  60  60  10  10
STUTTGART AR      67  30  49  33 /  70  70  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-
DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-
POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-
WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.

&&

AVIATION...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
915 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-301100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
915 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS TODAY.
THERE WERE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...WITH PRECIPITATION MOSTLY REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A LOT OF WIND ENERGY SURROUNDING THE FRONT...AND THIS
WILL GIVE DEVELOPING STORMS A FAST FORWARD SPEED. THIS USUALLY
INCREASES THE CHANCE OF STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH A
LOT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WARMING.
THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE FROM BECOMING OVERLY UNSTABLE.

GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED TODAY...WITH SEVERE STORMS MORE LIKELY IN EXTREME EASTERN
ARKANSAS AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE WARMING WILL BE
MORE APPRECIABLE. IN THESE AREAS...STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS AND
A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
STRONG AND GUSTY...WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OVER
40 MPH. THIS MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES IN SOME AREAS.

A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A LOT
OF SUNSHINE AND NOT AS MUCH WIND. MEANWHILE...A NEW STORM SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN ARKANSAS.

THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD RAIN INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS IT TRACKS
TO THE EAST. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE OVER
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.

AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT...IT WILL PULL
COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION FROM THE PLAINS. WITH MOISTURE
REMAINING...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF
MENA...CONWAY AND NEWPORT.

KEEP IN MIND THIS FORECAST MAY CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN NOW
AND THURSDAY. PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP INFORMED BY MONITORING THE LATEST
FORECASTS...STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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