Tornado Warning 50, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
654 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

.AVIATION...
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS...AND THERE WILL BE DAMAGING GUSTS
WITH SOME STORMS. CEILINGS WILL BE MVFR FOR THE MOST PART...BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW IFR CEILINGS IN PRECIPITATION.&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...THE FRONT WAS APPROCHING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE LINE WILL BUILD INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. THE LINE WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...BUT PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
CONTINUE HEADING THROUGH CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS.

BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL BISECT THE STATE FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...WITH THE STORM SYSTEM MOVING FARTHER AWAY
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WITH THE SYSTEM DEPARTING...THE FRONT WILL
TEND TO SLOW DOWN. THERE WILL BE SOME HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...THERE WILL BE SOME 0-1KM HELICITY FROM 100 TO 200
M2/S2.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MORE SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS. WITH SOME TURNING IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

IN ADDITION...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES
WILL BE NOTED IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON.
GIVEN A SLOW FRONT...AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE...THERE WILL
BE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH AMOUNTS OVER TWO INCHES IN
SPOTS.

OUTSIDE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY POSTED IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND IN CENTRAL/EASTERN
ARKANSAS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES
THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY EDGES OUT OF THE STATE. DRY
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS WEEKEND...WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER ARKANSAS THIS WEEKEND...BUT WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON MONDAY. RETURN FLOW
WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO START THE LONG TERM.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE BASICALLY WESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.
THERE WILL BE ONE DISTURBANCE AFTER ANOTHER MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. ON THE LAST DAY OF THE LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE A CLOSED LOW
ACTUALLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THERE
WILL BE A SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PUSH EAST ON TUESDAY. IT WILL BE
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT WITH IT...SO THAT THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PENETRATE ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE STATE...SO THERE
WILL BE A RETURNING WARM FRONT FROM THE SOUTH ON THE LAST DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THEY WILL FALL BELOW
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     75  53  70  45 /  60  40  10   0
CAMDEN AR         81  56  74  51 /  60  40  10   0
HARRISON AR       70  45  64  42 /  60  10  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    77  53  71  48 /  70  20  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  77  54  72  50 /  60  40  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     81  60  76  54 /  70  70  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      76  51  70  43 /  70  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  48  64  43 /  60  10  10   0
NEWPORT AR        75  55  71  46 /  60  40  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     79  57  74  51 /  70  60  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   75  48  69  43 /  70  10  10   0
SEARCY AR         76  54  71  47 /  60  40  10   0
STUTTGART AR      78  56  74  50 /  60  50  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS-
BRADLEY-CLEVELAND-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-GRANT-INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-
JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-WHITE-
WOODRUFF.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY.

&&

AVIATION...32

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-031000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS ARKANSAS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY. IT WILL BE PUSHING
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ALSO...
THERE EXISTS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE
STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE ON FRIDAY. THEN...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

IT IS LIKELY THAT SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED TODAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

32

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
635 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 AM     TSTM WND DMG     HARRISON                36.24N 93.12W
05/02/2008                   BOONE              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES WERE DOWNED IN AND AROUND TOWN.

0610 AM     TSTM WND DMG     JASPER                  36.01N 93.19W
05/02/2008                   NEWTON             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ON HIGHWAY 7 IN TOWN.

&&

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
653 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CORLEY                  35.21N 93.63W
05/02/2008                   LOGAN              AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE WAS DOWNED JUST SOUTH OF COVE LAKE ALONG HIGHWAY
            309.

&&

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
710 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N SUMMIT              36.29N 92.69W
05/02/2008                   MARION             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            A TREE WAS DOWNED ON HIGHWAY 14.

&&

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
806 AM CDT FRI MAY 02 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 AM     HAIL             HATTIEVILLE             35.28N 92.80W
05/02/2008  E1.00 INCH       CONWAY             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

219

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