Severe Thunderstorm Warning 607, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1140 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008

.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS
WITH CONVECTION. LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN KANSAS WILL MOVE INTO
MISSOURI EARLY TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW
THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 TO 25 MPH AND
GUSTY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO ARKANSAS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. A DRY SLOT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY FOR A BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION LATER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CST MON DEC 8 2008/

.UPDATE...
RAIN AND EMBEDDED TSRA CONT TO INCRS ACRS WRN AR THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE FIRST UPR IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF WRN TX.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS NOTED ACRS ERN OK SWD INTO NERN TX. SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD AFFECT PARTS OF SWRN AR LATE TNGT. PRECIP
WL CONT TO INCRS IN AREAL COVERAGE FM THE W OVERNIGHT.

SFC WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING AND ARE MAINLY
BLW LAKE WIND ADVY CRITERIA ATTM. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT GRADIENT
TO INCRS LATER TNGT OVR THE FA AND WL LEAVE HEADLINES IN PLACE.

UPDATED HRLY TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. READINGS COULD
STILL FALL A FEW DEGREES ACRS CNTRL AND ERN AR AT THE ONSET OF
RAINFALL DUE TO EVAP COOLING EFFECTS. FCST STILL ON TRACK FOR
TUE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG/SVR STORMS OVR SRN AR.
COVERAGE WL RMN HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
RECOVER AHEAD OF THE APCHG CDFNT LATE IN THE DAY. /44/
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR ARKANSAS-BAXTER-
BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-
MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-
PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-
YELL.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-091100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CST MON DEC 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF ARKANSAS. THE STORMS WILL FIRST FORM OVER
THE WEST...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...AND INCREASE IN SPEED FROM THE
SOUTH AT 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL
TONIGHT...AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL NOT BE A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ON TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE. DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...IF TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...AS WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
STRONG.

THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE AFTER THE COLD FRONT. WHILE
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE STATE...SOME
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA.
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN ARKANSAS MAY SEE SNOW MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN.
HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WARM.

THIS IS A COMPLEX WEATHER SITUATION...AND WILL CONTINUED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...AND IN THE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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