Severe Thunderstorm Warning 577, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
159 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE CHANCES OF RAIN WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND ANY UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING OVER AR.

GOOD CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF AR...AND HAVE
SEEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL AR...RELATED TO SOME WEAK ENERGY SHEARING OFF
THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD...AS WELL AS IN PLACE MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. MAY HAVE TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES INTO THE EVENING OVER
SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL AREAS.

THE UPPER PATTERN HAS THE REMNANTS OF EDOUARD MOVING WEST
NORTHWEST...WHILE THE UPPER NW FLOW HAS SOME ENERGY MOVING OVER
KS. AT THE SURFACE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SAGGING VERY SLOWLY
DURING THE DAY TIME. EXPECT IT TO MOVE MORE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE KEPT IN SOUTHWEST TO PARTS
OF CENTRAL THIS EVENING. THEN OVERNIGHT...THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO SAG SOUTH TO NORTH AR...WHILE SOME UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
OVER AR IN THE UPPER NW FLOW. NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...PRECIP AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST TO WEST WILL BE THE HIGHEST...WHILE LOWER TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL OVER AR QUITE UNCERTAIN...
BUT MODEL PRECIP WATER VALUES DO REACH 2 INCHES...WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO BE VERY ISOLATED. OVERALL LOCATION
WOULD BE FROM NW TO SC AR WITH EXPECTED BOUNDARY AND UPPER ENERGY. QPF
GRIDS REFLECT THIS. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH GRADUALLY TAKING THE
BOUNDARY TO SOUTH AR BY SATURDAY MORNING...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR
FILTERS INTO THE STATE FROM THE NE. PRECIP TRENDS REFLECT THIS WITH
THE HIGHEST POP LATER OVERNIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WHILE ENDING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY OVER MUCH OF
THE STATE WITH DRIER AIR AND TEMPS AT OR BELOW NORMALS.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF THE LONG
TERM...WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION. SLIGHT
POPS FOR NORTH THIRD OF THE STATE BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY...WITH
CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH BY MIDWEEK...WITH MINIMAL
POPS CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN NORTH ARKANSAS...AS SOME MODELS HAVE THE SYSTEMS NOT MAKING IT
ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE STATE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL BEGIN AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM AND CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD...AS DENSE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN KEEPS TEMPS
COOLER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     73  89  70  88 /  40  60  50  20
CAMDEN AR         75  94  73  91 /  20  30  50  40
HARRISON AR       72  87  66  87 /  40  60  50  20
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  92  72  91 /  30  50  50  40
LITTLE ROCK   AR  75  91  72  90 /  30  50  50  40
MONTICELLO AR     75  94  73  90 /  20  40  50  40
MOUNT IDA AR      74  91  72  90 /  30  50  50  40
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  72  87  66  88 /  40  60  50  10
NEWPORT AR        74  89  71  88 /  40  60  50  20
PINE BLUFF AR     75  93  73  91 /  20  40  50  40
RUSSELLVILLE AR   74  89  70  90 /  30  50  50  30
SEARCY AR         74  90  71  90 /  30  60  50  30
STUTTGART AR      75  92  72  90 /  30  50  50  40
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...61

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
330 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-071000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
330 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO...THE STORMS WILL NOT MOVE
MUCH...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

LATER THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE
NORTH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY...AND WILL STALL
OUT ACROSS THE STATE. THIS WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DUE
TO THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE STATE...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
REMAIN A CONCERN.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND
CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

58

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