Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
517 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS NEAR 1500 FEET CONTINUE TO SPREAD FROM OKLAHOMA AND MISSOURI
INTO ARKANSAS. THESE WILL SPREAD TO THE REST OF ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.
LOWER CEILINGS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUARTER OF ARKANSAS
TONIGHT.(38)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MAIN FORECAST ATTENTION WILL BE ON EVENTS THROUGH 18Z/12.

LOCAL RADARS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SCATTERED...LIGHT RETURNS ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT OVERALL COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF PRECIPITATION TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH LATE
EVENING...AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.  FORECAST
LAPSE RATES AND WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME OF THESE ELEVATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUPPORT A TRANISITION FROM LIQUID
PRECIPITQATION  FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET BEFORE ENDING LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY TUESDAY.  OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT...AS THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER THIS TRANSISTION.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EXTENDED MODELS ARE COMING INTO MORE OF AN AGREEMENT...BUT OF COURSE
THE DETAILS ARE STILL IN QUESTION. FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY...BRINGING RAIN TO THE STATE. HOWEVER...FRONT LOOKS TO STALL
OVER THE AREA WHILE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
OVERRUNNING WILL BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE/RAINFALL TO THE STATE.

THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE TEMPERATURES IN NORTH ARKANSAS...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN. HAVE CONTINUED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND THESE WILL NEED TO BE TWEAKED AS MODELS
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. IF COLD AIR REMAINS IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN EXISTS. HAVE ADDED
RAIN/FREEZING RAIN TO THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING...BUT IF TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER...THIS MAY NEED TO BE
IN FOR A LONGER TIME FRAME.

UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES NORTHEAST ON SUNDAY...WITH PRECIP ENDING.
SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND THE UPPER LOW COULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF WINTER PRECIP TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. DRY WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     36  41  24  47 /  70  40  10   0
CAMDEN AR         51  51  30  53 /  90  90  10   0
HARRISON AR       32  37  20  48 /  70  20  10   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    44  48  27  52 /  70  60  10   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  42  47  28  50 /  70  70  10   0
MONTICELLO AR     52  51  31  51 /  90  90  10   0
MOUNT IDA AR      41  46  26  52 /  70  50  10   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  32  37  19  47 /  70  20  10   0
NEWPORT AR        38  43  26  46 /  70  60  10   0
PINE BLUFF AR     49  49  30  50 /  90  90  10   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   37  44  26  50 /  70  30  10   0
SEARCY AR         40  45  27  48 /  70  60  10   0
STUTTGART AR      45  47  29  48 /  90  90  10   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...38

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
900 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
900 PM CST MON FEB 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LITTLE ROCK HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME SLEET AS
WELL. SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY OCCUR IN SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THOSE COUNTIES JUST
SOUTH OF THE ICE STORM AREA FOR NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. IT IS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY. AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THERE MAY BE
SOME SLEET AS WELL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...SOME STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WHICH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. RAINFALL WILL MOVE OUT OF
THE STATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK
ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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