Severe Thunderstorm Warning 331, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1254 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

.AVIATION...
SFC WARM FNT OVR SRN ATTM WL CONT WORKING SLOLY NWD THIS AFTN INTO
CNTRL AR. MEANWHILE...H85 BNDRY NOTED ACRS CNTRL AR WITH SCTD SHRA/
TSRA STARTING TO FORM ALONG IT. CONVECTION WL CONT TO EXPAND IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTN OVR THE NRN HALF OF AR AS WARM FNT WORKS NWD...
WITH MVFR/OCNL IFR CONDS EXPECTED. FURTHER S...SCTD STORMS WL FIRE
LATER THIS AFTN AND CONT INTO THE EVENING AS CDFNT WORKS EWD FM
THE PLAINS. MENTIONED WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WITH STORMS AHEAD
OF FNT. CONVECTION WL DIMINISH FM THE W LATER THIS EVENING...WITH
GUSTY W/NWLY WINDS USHERING DRIER AIR INTO THE FA. VFR CONDS WL
RETURN TO THE AREA LATER TNGT AND SUN. /44/
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1000 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008/

UPDATE...
NEAR TERM UPDATE...SOME INCREASE IN ELEVATED TSRA HAS BEEN NOTED
DURING THE PREVIOUS HOUR...PER DATA FROM KLZK DATA. COVERAGE OF
THIS ACTIVITY INDICATES THAT ONLY MINOR REINFORCEMENT OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE POSSIBLE...NOW LOCATED NEAR A LINE FROM
WALDRON...TO STUTTGART.

INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.
DAMAGING WIND...AND TORNADIC THREAT WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
19Z. /55/
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1139 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-111000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
1139 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RESIDENTS OF ARKANSAS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER
STATEMENTS...AND BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT PERSONAL SEVERE WEATHER
SAFETY ACTIONS.

MUCH OF ARKANSAS IS UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE.  THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

BY THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...INSTABILITY...BASED NEAR THE SURFACE...
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS...AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING WESTERN PORTIONS OF STATE. THUNDERSTORMS
FORMING IN THIS REGION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REALIZE THIS
INSTABILITY. THIS INSTABILITY...COMBINED WITH FORECAST WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY.  LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS...AS THE RACE QUICKLY TO THE EAST.

CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE...LINEAR
SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS WOULD PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD...DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

BE PREPARED FOR THIS DANGEROUS SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION....MONITOR
THE LATEST WEATHER BULLETINS...AND REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY
RULES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE STATE SUNDAY. DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA TUESDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON
CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

55

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1039 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

ARZ021-022-030-038-101625-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-POPE-YELL-
1039 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JOHNSON...LOGAN...POPE AND YELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 AM CDT...

AT 1035 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR COVE LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE RICH MOUNTAIN...MIDWAY...
RUSSELLVILLE...DARDANELLE...NEW BLAINE AND SULPHUR SPRINGS.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING
AREA. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ADVISED TO EXPECTED REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO THE VERY HEAVY RAIN.

44

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
313 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     HAIL             SAINT JOE               36.03N 92.80W
05/10/2008  E0.88 INCH       SEARCY             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

46